Can Trudeau and G20 Trump-proof the planet?
Any port in a storm, the saying goes, and so it’s fitting leaders of the G20 — including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — are gathering this weekend in maritime Hamburg to discuss “shared approaches to Trump-proofing the world.”
Fine, the actual strapline for this G20 meeting is “shaping an interconnected world,” but that’s just polite diplo-speak for how to “cut the U.S. out until it dials down the crazy.”
Although he claims to be The. Most. Successful. President. Ever., Trump’s touch is more götterdämmerung than gold. Whether it’s health or tax reform at home, or NATO’s future abroad, the “America First” agenda is long on chaos, short on achievement.
It’s also hostile to multilateralism. Will the G20, itself a creation of American diplomacy, be able to convince the president of its merits?
While the president hasn’t had much to say — good or bad — about the G20, the atmospherics of the meeting aren’t likely to please. For one thing, it’s the weekend, and he won’t be at a golf course. Second, thousands of angry protesters are expected to take to Hamburg’s streets to audition for the roles of “psycho” Joe and “low IQ” Mika in this week’s episode of Modern Day Presidential.
We know the president won’t have much to contribute to the central discussion on climate change, having poleaxed the Paris Accord and promised to power the U.S. with coal. Hence the need for G20 leaders to plot rearguard action on other joint policy fronts, such as trade.
These will be awkward talks to have with Trump in the room — not that he will be engaged.
He can, perhaps, be excused on that front. Few participants will admit it, but the G20, which was indispensable when the bottom was falling out of the global economy, has lost its purpose absent the sharp threat of worldwide economic devastation. With his ambivalence, Trump has highlighted a problem others have avoided: What’s the point of the G20?
Worse, with Trump, the G20 now finds itself caught in a catch-22: absent a mega global problem to solve, it can’t prove its worth, and absent U.S. buy-in, it can’t solve a mega global problem.
The environment, trade and migration are worth a chat, but they’re either already discussed extensively elsewhere, or better solved regionally.
Talk of the G20 communique — a document that once moved markets — will easily be eclipsed by Trump’s first meeting as American president with Vladimir Putin. The two men aren’t likely to agree on much but the handshake is going to be the image of our alpha age.
The best argument in the G20’s favour is that it gets the world’s heavyweights in the same room.
Regarding Kim Jong-un’s recent run of rocketing, it’s good that presidents Trump, Xi, Moon and Prime Minister Abe are around this weekend for a chat on North Korea. Trump has already set the table for their discussion by tweeting that China needs to make a “heavy move” on the Hermit Kingdom; let’s hope a face-to-face sesh can flesh out whether that means something other than a nuclear holocaust.
North Korea is about the only file Trump consistently frames as a multilateral problem. If Justin Trudeau and the leaders of the G20 are sincere in their desire for an engaged United States, it will be incumbent on them to find ways to be helpful to Trump on problems he can’t solve on his own. The heavy economic and geopolitical impact of cybercrime seems a natural fit.
It might not feel good to hew to Trump in this way, but the answer to a Leader of the Free World hellbent on the solo use of his tremendous lever of power could just be to procure problems that fit its shape.