New OHL facility: Many factors in play

Whether city council believes Peterborough can afford a new downtown arena and concert venue to replace the Memorial Centre won’t be simply a question of dollars and cents.

And the consulting firm being hired to assess the situation won’t deliver a simple yes or no answer.

Sierra Planning and Management will look at several key questions: what are the short and long-term trends in Major Junior hockey attendance, would a new arena/concert venue attract more and bigger acts, and what would be the effect of both on downtown?

For its $157,800 Sierra should also weigh in on the appropriate size of any new arena, the cost to build it and the likelihood of getting federal money to help offset that cost.

City council will have to put a value on those various costs and returns, monetary or otherwise.

Not a simple exercise.

The Petes’ attendance will be a factor. Historically it has been driven by the success of the team, not the quality of the arena.

Kingston is a good parallel. The Frontenacs got a new 5,700 seat home (6,700 for concerts) 10 years ago and have never come close to filling it.

Across the Ontario Hockey League total attendance has been flat for a decade, ranging from 2.7 million to 2.9 million.

So, don’t look for a huge boost in Petes ticket sales or revenue.

Kingston’s arena has been more successful in attracting concerts and non-hockey events and has made money for the city every year.

The degree to which a bigger, jazzier complex would have that effect here will hard to predict. That also makes the potential positive effect on downtown hard to predict.

The manager of London’s 9,000-seat OHL arena said recently that it has completely rejuvenated that city’s downtown: 150 new stores and $170 million invested over the past decade with more projects on the way.

However, other factors affect downtown redevelopment. The arena has no doubt helped but isolating its impact is an imprecise exercise.

A new arena wouldn’t necessarily be a financial drag on the city. The Memorial

Centre loses $700,000 a year on operations and annual debt repayment from a 2003 renovation is $950,000.

A facility that cost taxpayers $1.65 million annually would be a wash.

Which brings the conversation back to impact. Arena backers say a new complex would have a significant rejuvenating effect on downtown, and therefore the entire city.

With that in mind some would say a “yes” vote reflects confidence in Peterborough’s future. Others would call it a leap of faith, at best.

The information consultants provide will be helpful but council’s decision will have a lot to do with interpretation and intangibles.