Method predicts where lightning will spark wildfires

CALGARY — Apparently lightning can strike the same place twice after all.

A study by researchers at the University of Calgary’s Schulich School of Engineering suggests it’s possible to predict where lightning will strike and how often. They say satellite data and artificial intelligence can help foresee where lightning poses a greater risk to spark wildfires.

“That will give us a more precise description about the patterns happening in the lightning and the wildfire hazard,” said Dr. Xin Wang, one of three researchers involved in the study. “It also can be used for the future predictions about those hazards.”

Lightning-caused wildfires are a growing problem in Western Canada and have been stretching fire resources to their limits.

The study used historical data from 2010 to 2016 and examines how lightning is affected by a number of elements, including land use, soil type, elevation, vegetation cover and surface temperature.

“We analyzed a number of different types of data over a number of years so we can pinpoint the location that has a high chance of wildfire,” study coauthor Jeong Woo Kim said. “Statistically I would say it is more than 90 per cent accurate.”

Kim said the analysis should be invaluable to government agencies that oversee the deployment of firefighting resources.