No matter what Ottawa does, there will never be pipeline peace

MONTREAL — In the increasingly fiery debate over the planned expansion of the Alberta/B.C. Trans Mountain pipeline, there is no mystery about the conflicting end games of the three governments embroiled in the dispute.

But what about Kinder Morgan itself ?

Alberta and Ottawa want to see the project designed to bring more of that province’s oil to tidewater completed — as planned until last weekend by its parent company — while British Columbia’s NDP government would like it to be scrapped.

But what would an outcome, satisfactory enough for Kinder Morgan to resume work on the project by May 31, actually look like?

Is its ultimatum merely a prelude to walking away from a project that has become less potentially lucrative in the wake of the election in the United States of a pro-pipeline president and the planned completion of two projects designed to link the Alberta oilfields to the American refineries?

Alternatively, is the company essentially looking to minimize the risks to its shareholders by getting Canada’s pipeline-hungry governments to shoulder at least part of the risks?

In either case, the solution would involve Alberta and Ottawa joining forces to finance the project in whole or in part. Alberta Premier Rachel Notley has indicated her province would even consider purchasing the Trans Mountain pipeline outright. So far, federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau has not ruled that option out.

Paving the road to completion with public funds could offer the two governments the path of least resistance to keep the project alive.

For, if Kinder Morgan is expecting a sea change in the adversarial climate attending its implementation of the Trans Mountain plan between now and the end of May, it might as well be reaching for the moon.

It is not that the federal government does not have legal and constitutional tools in its box to try to ensure the project goes through, but that it has none that is guaranteed to achieve peace any time soon on the pipeline front. Indeed, using those tools could make matters worse.

For one, there is no scenario that could transform B.C.’s New Democrat minority government into a pipeline-friendly one. Its survival and its future electoral prospects depend on it being seen to stick to its guns on Trans Mountain.

But even if one or more retaliatory federal moves against the B.C. government convinced the latter to wave a white flag, that would not deter demonstrators from picketing the pipeline work sites.

On the contrary, the foreclosing of alternative avenues to fight the project could translate into more pipeline opponents turning to the streets and to acts of civil disobedience.

Justin Trudeau says the federal government remains “determined” to see the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion built after Kinder Morgan hit pause on the project, but the prime minister wouldn’t say what Ottawa’s next steps would be.

And then there is the matter of what it is that the pro-pipeline forces want B.C.’s current government to desist from doing.

Premier John Horgan has not adopted a law to block the pipeline, nor has his government proposed legislation to do so. By its own admission, such a bill might not survive a legal challenge.

But Horgan is considering asking the courts whether the province has a say in regulating the substances that transit through the province.

With Alberta Conservative leader Jason Kenney leading the charge, there are calls on Trudeau to slash federal social payments to B.C. presumably to discourage its government from pursuing those legal options.

To do so would place the federal government on a slippery slope that would likely lead straight to a wall of provincial resistance, along with more litigation.

As unpleasant as the prospect may be for pro-pipeline advocates, it is not an affront to the rule of law or an abuse of provincial power to challenge the federal government’s constitutional authority in a given file in court.

Such moves have been a legitimate part of the workings of the federation for decades.

If the federal government were to slash its transfer payments to provinces that engage in constitutional or legal challenges of policies Ottawa deems to be in the national interest, is Kenney saying he would expect no less of Trudeau if and when one or more Conservative-led provinces set out to fight the Liberal carbon-pricing plan in court?