Peterborough jobless rate remains lowest in Canada at 2.7% for a second month

Interest-rate decision next Wednesday, increase expected

For the second month in a row, Peterborough had the lowest unemployment rate by far of Canada’s 34 census metropolitan areas.

Peterborough’s jobless rate held steady at just 2.7 per cent in June, unchanged from May, well below Quebec City which had the second lowest rate at 3.8 per cent.

Nearby, Oshawa’s jobless rate fell to 4.2 per cent in June from 4.5 per cent in May, Kingston’s rose to 5.6 per cent from 5.2 per cent while Barrie’s dipped to 6.9 per cent from 7.4 per cent.

The national unemployment rate rose to 6 per cent from 5.8 per cent in June while Ontario’s jobless rate rose to 5.9 per cent from 5.7 per cent in May.

Despite the impressive low percentage for Peterborough, the rate partly reflects a continuing decline in the size of Peterborough’s labour market that began last September.

There were 800 more people employed in June compared to May in Peterborough and 1,200 more than June 2017. There were 4,000 fewer people unemployed that a year ago.

Peterborough’s adjusted labour force stood at 63,500 in June, up from 62,700 in May but way down from 66,300 a year ago. Of those 61,800 were employed and 1,700 were unemployed, compared to 60,600 and 5,700 a year ago.

Peterborough’s labour force participation rate (the proportion of people who are either employed or unemployed but looking for work out of the total working-age population) was 60 per cent in June down from 63.3 per cent a year ago.

It’s also much lower than the national average participation rate of 65.5 per cent, a reflection of Peterborough having a higher proportion of retirees.

The figures are for the Peterborough census metropolitan area, which includes the city, the four surrounding townships of Cavan Monaghan, Selwyn, Douro-Dummer and Otonabee-South Monaghan, along with Curve Lake and Hiawatha First Nations.

Statistics Canada jobless figures are based on surveys adjusted to a three-month rolling average.

Because of its size, Peterborough has a smaller sample size than the other cities which Statistics Canada warns can cause variability in the sampling.

OTTAWA — Canada received a dose of new jobs last month, maintained sturdy wage growth and saw more people searching for work — all seen as positives by experts who believe the path is clear for the central bank to raise interest rates next week.

The economy added 31,800 positions in June and the unemployment rate rose to six per cent, from 5.8 per cent in May, Statistics Canada reported Friday in its latest labour force survey.

Many analysts read the higher jobless rate as an encouraging sign because the influx of nearly 76,000 job seekers back into the labour market last month suggested more people are optimistic they can find work thanks to the hotter economy.

The latest jobs report, which also contained weaker data points, arrived less than a week before the Bank of Canada’s upcoming interest-rate decision next Wednesday.

Ahead of the release Friday, expectations had already strengthened that governor Stephen Poloz will raise the benchmark at the meeting for the first time since January. The bank’s overnight rate target is 1.25 per cent.

For many, the jobs numbers helped reinforce their predictions.

“This report was more than enough to seal the deal on a July rate hike from the Bank of Canada,” said Frances Donald, a senior economist with Manulife Asset Management.

Donald said key indicators from the labour force data included the higher participation rate and still-strong wage gains.

Average hourly wage growth, which is closely watched by the Bank of Canada ahead of its rate decisions, remained firm last month at 3.6 per cent. The number, however, did come down from its nine-year high in May of 3.9 per cent.

The predictions that Poloz will hike the interest rate, a move that will likely prompt Canada’s big banks to raise their prime rates, come even though the economy is facing significant uncertainty.

The unknowns include Canada’s intensifying trade dispute with the United States and the challenging renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. There are also growing fears of global disruptions as a trade fight escalates between the U.S. and China.

Donald believes Poloz won’t be knocked off his economic outlook by trade uncertainties because he has communicated that they largely remain hypotheticals at this point.