Has Trump reached his tipping point? Don’t bet the farm

With typical braggadocio, even before he was elected president, Donald Trump once claimed that his political base was so devoted it would stand by him even if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue.

Trump is a lot of things, but one thing he’s not is wrong about that. Especially after this week, it seems like he could get away with murder and not face any consequences.

In the space of 24 hours his former campaign manager was convicted of eight criminal acts, including tax and bank fraud. Then Trump’s former personal lawyer pleased guilty to eight other charges, including some that directly implicate the president in a criminal scheme to affect the outcome of the election he eventually won.

That lawyer, Michael Cohen, admits to paying hush money to two women claiming to have had affairs with Trump. Further, Cohen claims, he made those payments at the direction of Trump.

Had the women, a former Playboy model and porn star Stormy Daniels, not been paid, their claims would have been publicized during the campaign.

They would have been thoroughly investigated, and if proven true could have changed the outcome of the election. If Cohen is telling the truth, Trump is a criminal.

But, of course, Trump and his supporters claim Cohen is lying. Maybe. But keep in mind Cohen made his admissions as part of his plea agreement.

He didn’t mention Trump by name at that point, but he and his lawyer have been making the claim publicly every hour since that time. If Cohen is found to have perjured himself, his punishment for the crimes he admits to having committed will be dramatically more serious. Ask yourself why Cohen would further jeopardize his own welfare, not to mention his reputation, by lying under oath.

Now what? Cohen has not been sentenced, and neither has Paul Manafort, Trump’s former campaign manager. You can bet that prior to that, both will be under immense pressure from special counsel Robert Mueller, who is investigating the president and whether outside forces influenced the election.

They will have opportunities galore to turn on their former boss. Speculation is that one of them will probably do it, and Trump will be more directly implicated. But will it matter?

Even if it is eventually shown that Trump illegally authorized the hush money to repress stories of his extramarital dalliances, will his support base — in particular in the Republican party — begin to turn in the interests of their country?

Don’t hold your breath.

In the 48 hours since these revelations rocked an already dazed nation, a growing number of voices can be heard intoning “Watergate,” the half-century old scandal that eventually brought down Richard Nixon. Trump is now in similar territory, they say. Maybe. But there’s a key difference.

Back in those days, the Republican party was a key player in the investigation and eventually brought pressure on Nixon to resign, in the interests of the country and government.

Today, Republicans are mired in a fractured party and polarized Congress. Can anyone really picture them actually standing up to Trump? As we said, don’t bet the farm.

Will his support base — in particular in the Republican party — begin to turn in the interests of their country?