What comes next after flattening the curve?

In the big pandemic picture, Ontario is taking a slow and cautious approach to reopening.

Since the provincial government sets the relaxation parameters for everyone, that means Peterborough is also on a slow, and maybe steady if the numbers look good, path.

Overall that is the right approach.

But as we move farther into the flattening or postflattening phase, municipalities should be given more leeway to adapt to their particular circumstances.

Looking for ways to allow people more freedom to leave their homes, businesses more options to reopen and society in general more incentive to reengage isn’t a case of cranky, over-anxious rebellion.

And it doesn’t mean gloves and masks off, back to normal.

Social distancing rules and increased vigilance around hospitals and hot spots such as nursing homes (yes, nursing homes ... we will get to that later) worked.

The coronavirus pandemic has not been as bad as it could and would have been because people followed the rules and systems adapted.

If cases spike again we may need a return to shutdown rules. But that spike would need to be large and prolonged.

At this point, relief of financial pain to individuals, businesses and the economy needs to be, if not a matching, then a nearly equal concern.

COVID-19 numbers for public health units across the province are an indicator of where the virus remains a bigger problem and where it is coming under control. However, those numbers also need context.

As of Monday, Peterborough city and county, along with Curve Lake and Hiawatha, had recorded 56.8 cases and two deaths per 100,000 people. The provincial average was 134.3 cases and 10 deaths, the national average more than 160 cases and 10.2 deaths.

That makes the situation here look good, and it is relatively speaking.

Statistics from individual health units bear that out. In general, bigger centres have higher numbers and mid-size ones are better off.

Peterborough falls closely between Brant County (Brantford and area) and Eastern Ontario (east of Kingston, excluding Ottawa) on the severity list.

Toronto is much the highest at 212 cases and 15 deaths. London and Hamilton are closely matched.

There are outliers among smaller communities, including nearby City of Kawartha Lakes-Haliburton area where the 85.7 case rate matches London and Hamilton, but with substantially higher deaths. As in all outlier areas, big numbers reflect serious nursing home outbreaks.

The nursing home situation has attracted a lot of attention and criticism. However, a small number of homes have been tragically affected. Dr. Rosana Salvaterra, Peterborough’s medical officer of health, makes the point that local nursing homes adopted good protocols early on and have not seen unusually large numbers of cases or deaths.

Kingston is an outlier on the good end of the numbers, with rates of 29.6 cases and zero deaths, in part because public health officials there got a very fast jump on testing and prevention in nursing homes.

Those examples of effective local measures are an argument for allowing more local input in relaxation decisions. Based on experience and numbers, Peterborough will be able to open more quickly and safely than Toronto.

That can only happen if the provincial government allows it, something Premier Doug Ford and his advisers should recognize and act on.