Second wave of coronavirus pandemic may well prove harder to control than the first
Parts of Canada are already battling a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic and the struggle promises to be at least as difficult as it was in the first wave, if not more so.
Both Ontario and Quebec are reporting more new daily cases of COVID-19 in mid-October than they were at the peak of Wave One in April. Manitoba reached a daily record last week and has an active case count that is second only to Quebec’s on a per-capita basis; the province’s chief medical officer of health is poised to impose on Winnipeg the sort of restrictions recently reintroduced on health clubs, bars and restaurants in Montreal, Quebec City, Ottawa, Toronto, Peel Region and York Region.
And here we go again on the longterm care front! Although operators of LTC homes know what to expect this time, their residents face another harrowing f ew months. By last Thursday, 71 of Ontario’s 626 LTC homes had reported outbreaks, with active cases affecting a total of 159 residents and 199 employees. Two Toronto homes each had more than two dozen infected patients.
Ontario’s Doug Ford government has failed to take the sort of precautions that Quebec Premier François Legault has taken in Quebec — spending heavily to train 10,000 personal service workers and hiring a COVID manager and an infection-control specialist for each of the province’s 400 LTC facilities. These Quebec measures may earn Ontario the dubious distinction of
replacing Quebec as the country’s epicentre of LTC cases in Wave Two.
Relief from Ottawa is not yet in sight. In the Throne Speech a month ago, the Trudeau government signalled that LTC issues would receive priority attention, and in an address to the nation a few hours later, the prime minister promised to work with the provinces to establish a “national standard” for long-term care.
Last week, he said he would push the provincial premiers toward harmonized “norms” for LTC homes across the country. “I don’t think that seniors should be better protected in certain regions than others, so we need to work together to offer quality care to all seniors and I will certainly be discussing this with the provinces,” he said.
It is a fine principle, but damnably difficult to satisfy. The premiers are drawing a hard line. They are not disposed to trade any more of their jurisdiction over health in return for a few paltry billions in federal cash or tax points. They have been down that road before, and they know that federal largesse declines as provincial costs rise. In the end, they will probably agree, grudgingly, to accept Ottawa money in exchange for a few “norms.”
The norms will fall short of a national standard.
Provincial resistance is one obstacle that will make it more difficult for the federal government to cope with the second wave than with the first. Wave One came as a shock and provincial g overnments looked instinctively to Ottawa for leadership. After roughly six months of following the federal lead — rules for handwashing, mask wearing, social distancing, voluntary isolating and working from home, the provinces want to reopen their economies, get their people back to work and recoup lost tax revenues.
A greater obstacle is a change in public attitude. Back in March, Canadians were frightened. Never having encountered anything like COVID-19, they accepted lifestyle and workplace restrictions without undue complaint. They carried on with grace (and a measure of black humour).
But now having tasted partial freedom as the Wave One curve flattened, they want more of it. They want to be free to resume normal family and social lives, free as soon as possible of masks and social distancing.
Ottawa was amazingly successful in winning public co-operation from March to August in Wave One. It will have a much harder time if it attempts to stuff people back into a COVID cocoon for Wave Two. If it can’t get the public on its side again, Wave Two could be long and deadly.