Eroding trust is partitioning society and threatens to destroy democracy

Chekov wrote, “You must trust and believe in people, or life becomes impossible.”

Declining trust globally is causing diminished faith in the democratic process, and a regression to tribalism.

According to the 2015 Edelman Trust Barometer, 80 per cent of people globally distrust their governments. A 2019 PEW report indicated that, at only 17 per cent, trust in the U.S. government is at a near historic low. A February 2020 DART and Maru/Blue poll found that an alarming 82 per cent of Canadians believe that politicians represent their own partisan interests rather than those of Canada.”

OECD evidence shows that government’s values, such as high levels of integrity, fairness and openness of institutions are strong predictors of public trust.

Similarly, government’s competence — its responsiveness and reliability in delivering public services and anticipating new needs — are crucial for boosting trust in institutions.

This accounts for an increase in public trust of government during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Edelman, however it is probably just a spike on a downward curve.

Similarly, public trust in media has declined. An August 2020 report by PEW Research showed that 54 per cent of adults in the U.S. had little or no confidence in news media, and a majority think that journalists do not act in the best interests of the public. A February 2020 poll by Statista suggests that only 44 per cent of Canadians trust news media.

According to the World Bank 2017 World Development Report, voter turnout is declining globally, more than 10 per cent over the past 25 years. The public is disengaging from democracy in alarming numbers, and taking to the streets.

Wealth inequality contributes largely to declining trust in government, with only the top “one-per cent” prospering. The World Bank Gini Rating, a statistical measure of wealth and income distribution ranging from a low of zero (equal distribution) to a high of one (no distribution), provides a global scorecard for income inequality. According to World Bank’s Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2016 report, the Gini coefficient saw a sustained growth during the 19th and 20th centuries. In 1820, the Gini coefficient was 0.50 and in1980 and1992, the figure was 0.657. The U.S., with a Gini coefficient of 0.485, is at its highest level of inequality in 50 years.

The Age of Post-Truth has been birthed and nurtured in part by social media. Social media provide a perfect platform for emotive and fact-free opinion, allowing users to filter information according to confirmation bias. The resulting filter-bubbles partition users into partisan groups that receive only news which supports their pre-existing beliefs. Untethered from the anchor of truth, society is rudderless, adrift on the turbulent waters of rumour, tacking from tweet to groundless tweet in search of the sensational.

Diminished faith in institutions has given rise to the politics of eternity, and the growth of extremist politics.

According to the Wilson Centre, “… declining political party influence tends to be self-reinforcing and risks greater democratic decline. Political neophytes … often circumvent party apparatus by appealing directly to voters through mass media. Their lack of experience is also associated with lower respect for democratic norms. Once in office, more personalist politicians can undermine democratic norms such as the rule of law, creating greater opportunities for corruption, and even reversion to autocracy.”

A 2019 paper by Yale professor of political science and psychological science Shawn Rosenburg entitled “The Shocking Paper Predicting the End of Democracy” predicts the end of democracy. According to Rosenburg, “Democracy is hard work. And as society’s ‘elites’ — experts and public figures who help those around them navigate the heavy responsibilities that come with self-rule — have increasingly been sidelined, citizens have proved ill equipped cognitively and emotionally to run a well-functioning democracy. As a consequence, the centre has collapsed and millions of frustrated and angst-filled voters have turned in desperation to right-wing populists. In well-established democracies like the United States, democratic governance will continue its inexorable decline and will eventually fail.”

A glimmer of hope on your local newsstand, however. After decades of decline, trust in mainstream media is increasing. The 2018 Poynter Media Trust Survey found that 73 per cent of Americans across the political spectrum trust their local newspapers.