Power surge: Home runs are back
Round-trippers account for more than half the scoring in playoffs
ARLINGTON, TEXAS — For all the talk about pride in advancing runners and manufacturing runs, teams in the post-season have really dug the long ball.
Home runs drove in 237 of the 462 runs in the post-season through World Series Game 5, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. That comes to 51.3 per cent, up from 46.6 per cent last year and highest since the postseason expanded beyond the World Series in 1969.
Tampa Bay has been more reliant on the long ball than most. The AL East champions became the first team to homer in four consecutive innings of a post-season game during a thrilling 8-7 comeback win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday night that tied the Series at two games apiece. Brandon Lowe’s three-run homer off Pedro Baez gave the Rays a 5-4 lead in the sixth, and Kevin Kiermaier tied it at 6 with a home run against Baez in the seventh.
The Rays didn’t connect Sunday night while losing 4-2 in Game 5. They have 33 homers in the post-season accounting for 52 of 78 runs (66.7 per cent).
“I think it’s more part of the trend, When we win, I couldn’t even tell you how we scored the runs: via home run, walk, hit, error or whatever,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said.
“I think it’s harder to do anything offensively in this game because the pitching is so talented, just the electric arms that these teams have and definitely in the post-season. The reason they’re in post-season, playing post-season baseball is because a lot of that coincides with great pitching and that’s what we’re seeing. So that is what makes it tougher to score.”
Los Angeles has been far less dependent, hitting 27 homers that drove in 42 of 98 runs (42.9 per cent). Max Muncy and Joc Pederson connected Sunday night.
That is a reversal from the regular season, when the Dodgers were second in the majors at 51.3 per cent and Tampa Bay was 20th at 41.5 per cent. Cincinnati was the most long-ball dependent at 59.7 per cent, according to Elias.
“We’re not out there trying to hit a home run. That’s not what we’re talking about in our game plan. We’re just going to stay disciplined to our approach,” Muncy said. “Those are a result of us doing good things. It’s not us just swinging for the fence every single time up at the plate. It’s guys putting together good at-bats, seeing good pitches and hitting a mistake that the pitcher makes.”
Since the start of League Championship Series in 1969, the highest percentage of postseason runs scoring on homers had been 50.9 per cent in 2017. The percentage rose above this year’s twice back when the sample sizes were vastly smaller: in 1956, when 31 of 58 runs (53.4 per cent) scored on 15 homers, and in 1957, when 25 of 48 runs (52 per cent) scored on 15 homers.
It’s not just the post-season. Home runs have accounted for more than 40 per cent of runs in each of the past five seasons, with 2020’s 43.7% second to a record 45.2 per cent in 2019, according to Elias. Through 2015, 38 per cent of runs on homers had never been reached.
As the post-season keeps getting longer, more pitchers appear to miss locations in highpressure situations.
“We realize on the pitching side, both teams are at the very end of their rope when it comes to the season, when it comes to high-leverage situations, the intensity of their innings, and their mistakes are getting hit,” then-Houston manager AJ Hinch said following his team’s 13-12 win over the Dodgers in the 2017 Series.