New research links voter turnout to the strength of local journalism
In the age of post-truth — at a time when “fake news,” “alternate facts,” “truthiness,” social-media, image manipulation software and rabid partisan commentary disguised as news render it difficult to distinguish rhetoric from reality — it seems that mainstream journalism still plays a critical role in democracy.
A new study — conducted by Plum Consulting for the U.K. Department of Digital, Culture, Media and Sport in connection with the Cairncross Review of media sustainability — indicates that newspaper circulation and voter turnout are positively linked. The report is based upon research which compared declining turnout in local elections with collapsing local newspaper circulations. It found that for every percentage point growth in circulation, voter turnout increases by 0.37 per cent.
U.K. media minister and former culture secretary John Whittingdale is quoted by the Press Gazette as saying, “This government has always recognized the importance of a free press to our country and democracy, but our new research shows just how vital it is. The direct correlation between local newspaper provision and electoral turnout proves that a healthy democracy, even at a grassroots level, needs high quality local journalism to thrive. The long-term sustainability of the local and regional press is vital so they can continue holding decision-makers to account.”
The Plum study analyzed statistics from the Joint Industry Currency for Regional Media Research (JICREG) which shows an alarming decrease in print circulation since 2007. Plum found that “average daily print circulation across all local authority districts in the UK was at 31 per cent of 2007 figures in 2019.”
In Canada — according to a discussion paper published in 2011 by Communications Management Inc. (CMI) entitled “Sixty Years of Daily Newspaper Circulation Trends” — total daily newspaper paid circulation as a percentage of households plummeted dramatically between 1950 and 2010, from slightly above 100 per cent to less than 30 per cent. It stated, “We are coming to the end of a 100-year-old economic model for the media industry. In fact, what is happening now is nothing less than a fundamental restructuring of business models for the media. It is systemic. It is structural. And it is not likely to go back to the way it was before.” A followup paper in 2013 showed the trend continuing through 2013 to a low of just above 25 per cent.
This drop in readership has multiple causes, the emergence of the internet and new media formats playing a primary role.
Declining public trust in news media however, has also contributed.
Public trust in journalists varies globally. The 2018 Wellcome Global Monitor study charts a low of 12 per cent in Greece to a high of 93 per cent in Uzbekistan. Median global trust in journalists stands at 59 per cent.
Lately however, public trust in news media is apparently recovering after decades of decline. According to Gallup, 45 per cent of Americans have a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in the mass media to report the news “fully, accurately and fairly,” representing a continued recovery from the alltime low of 32 per cent in 2016.
Media trust is now the highest it has been since 2009, but remains well below the heady post-Watergate 1976 high of 72 per cent.
The 2 018 Edelman Trust Barometer showed that 61 per cent of Canadians trust mainstream journalism, an increase of 10 per cent over the previous year. Edelman also found a difference in trust between traditional and newer formats, with only 28 per cent of Canadians trusting social media as a news source.
In light of the Plum study data, which demonstrates that local journalism contributes directly to the health of the electoral system, increasing public trust in mainstream news media is critically important. Fortunately for democracy, local journalism seems to be making the greatest recovery … above national news media.
The 2018 Poynter Media Trust Survey found that 76 per cent of Americans have a “great deal” or a “fair amount” of trust in local television news in their community, and 73 per cent do so for local newspapers. By comparison, only 59 per cent of Americans have a “great deal” or a “fair amount” of trust in national newspapers; 55 per cent for network news, and 47 per cent for online news.
Accurate reporting builds public trust.
In the words of late newspaper legend Ben Bradlee, “If you’re gonna put it on the front page of the paper, you gotta make sure it’s right. Cause if you’re wrong, you gotta eat it for the next 24 hours … and it doesn’t taste good!”