Canada’s vaccine outlook remains positive overall

Today let’s talk about vaccines. There is no shortage of discussion fodder.

Ever since we got word that vaccines would be coming late last year, the sense of collective anxiety has been growing. It’s understandable. After all, they are our salvation. And when first Pfizer and then Moderna announced they needed to reduce production, that sense of anxiety took wing. Again, it’s understandable, but some reality checking is in order.

The supply issues are a worry, to be sure. But credible public health officials counsel us to see them as detours not roadblocks. They say we will get where we need to be, if not quite as quickly as we might like. The federal government and officials in charge of vaccine acquisition still say the majority of Canadians can be vaccinated by the end of September. If that target isn’t met, the Trudeau government is going to have a problem on its hands, which could jeopardize its chances of winning the next election.

Again, though, it’s not just the government saying the target is attainable. Public health experts like Lorian Hardcastle, an associate professor of health law and policy at the University of Calgary, says: “I think it’s certainly not impossible that we could run into stumbling blocks that would set us back. But it does still seem to be a reasonable forecast at this point ...”

Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease physician and member of the Ontario government’s vaccine task force, says that even if no other vaccines are approved the government’s targets are realistic.

Dr. Zain Chagla, an infectious diseases physician at St. Joseph’s Healthcare Hamilton and associate professor at McMaster University, also said even with just the two currently approved vaccines, there should be enough for every Canadian by fall.

But he and others caution there are a host of factors that could slow down the rollout once the supply is here: geography, vaccine hesitancy, slowdowns in provincial distribution and other factors could make the fall target a challenge.

However, the odds are very good that vaccines other than Moderna and Pfizer will be approved soon. Pharmaceutical company Novavax submitted its vaccine to Health Canada for regulatory approval on Friday after Ottawa finalized a deal with the Maryland-based company for 52 million doses. Health Canada is on track to approve the AstraZeneca vaccine by the middle of this month. And the Johnson and Johnson vaccine is in the final stage of clinical trials.

That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t feel a degree of anxiety. But it does mean patience is in order. Premier Doug Ford could stand to be reminded of that. He has been heard repeatedly chastising Health Canada for taking too long to approve vaccines. Would a passenger on a plane in rough weather complain that his pilot was being too cautious? Is Ford advocating Health Canada cut some corners?

Those of us old enough to remember might recall what happened when the original polio vaccine was released and found to have serious side effects. There are some things you just don’t rush.

Finally, there’s the worry that the European Union might apply export controls that disrupt Canada’s vaccine supply. The government says it has repeated verbal reassurances that won’t happen, and on Wednesday an EU official told CBC vaccine delivery has been approved and export controls will only be applied in “very limited cases.”

In Canada, and around the world, this is an unprecedented situation. There are bumps in the road, but the people who should know best — health experts, not politicians — remain optimistic and that should bring some degree of comfort.