China’s alarming invasion simulations
In July of 2015, China’s state media aired footage of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducting a simulated special forces operation. Generally, for an authoritarian regime to display its military might is not out of the ordinary — it’s a means of deterring a state’s adversaries abroad and its own citizens from dissent.
However, this was no generic military footage. Those watching from Taiwan couldn’t help but notice a crucial detail: the building that the PLA is assaulting looks identical to the Presidential Office Building in Taipei.
Satellite imagery of the Zhurihe Training Base, situated deep within Inner Mongolia, later revealed that China had in fact built a mock section of downtown Taipei (oddly enough, there’s also a faux Eiffel Tower). Global Times — a megaphone for the Chinese Communist Party — has said that the Zhurihe Training Base is the “perfect place” for training exercises and realistic simulations.
Discussion then arose in the international security community over what these actions really meant. Using Ockham’s razor, some held that the meaning of China’s actions were clear: to prepare the PLA for an invasion of Taiwan. Others believed that China’s military simulations were a way of flaunting its new equipment. And others thought there was a more complex meaning, proposing that this particular simulation was a tactic used to dissuade Taiwanese voters from adopting a hard-line against Beijing in their elections.
Years later, it’s clear that these military invasion simulations are not just signalling.
In September 2020, China’s airforce showed off an array of fighter jets and bombers. Global Times compared China’s capabilities to Taiwan’s, writing that China’s air superiority would be “devastating to the island’s naval force.” Were these drills also a signal, rather than preparations? It seems not, according to the Global Times’ editorial titled: “PLA: Friday drills not warning, but rehearsal for Taiwan takeover.”
Taiwan wasn’t the only focus of these September drills. A dramatic video released by Chinese state media depicts bombings of an airbase that looks exactly like the U.S. Andersen Air Force Base in Guam. Guam is a strategic island for naval and airforce operations, reconnaissance, and communications should conflict erupt in East Asia.
In October 2020, the PLA launched a live-fire exercise that simulated an invasion of Taiwan by land, air and sea. Significantly, this simulation came on Taiwan’s “Double Tenth” day, a significant national holiday in Taiwan.
In late October, Taiwan News wrote, “China has reportedly deployed new hypersonic missiles across from Taiwan as it marshals forces in preparation for a future invasion.” Global Times, however, asserted that, “The PLA Rocket Force’s older generation missiles are already sufficient to wipe out most of Taiwan’s key military installations.”
In December 2020, China’s state footage aired another mock invasion, this time appearing to show its Type 96A tanks assaulting the streets of Taiwan.
The new year is showing that things are no different. In January 2021, conversations between pilots of a Chinese H-6K bomber reportedly indicated that a simulated target was the USS Theodore Roosevelt, an aircraft carrier under the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. The carrier routinely operates in the South China Sea, in and around the Taiwan Strait.
What to make of these simulations?
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has always held Taiwanese independence as an existential threat. The CCP has always eyed an invasion of Taiwan.
But in the past, China’s military was simply not equipped to conduct a successful invasion of Taiwan. Today, China boasts the world’s largest navy. Incredible technological advancements have enhanced the PLA’s weaponry and updated its doctrines. Beijing’s military spending has nearly doubled in the past decade.
The latest U.S. Department of Defence report on China’s military reads, “China has a range of options for military campaigns against Taiwan, from an air and maritime blockade to a full-scale amphibious invasion.”
This isn’t to say with certainty that a Taiwan takeover will come any time soon. Some experts eye the year 2049 for a manifestation of these plans — 100 years after the Nationalists retreated to Taiwan and the Communists proclaimed the People’s Republic of China.
But it’s clear that this new stream of invasion simulations pose an alarming threat. First, because state rhetoric is unequivocal in its bellicosity when referring to these simulations. Second, the PLA has new-found capabilities that are increasingly a difficult matchup for Taiwan’s forces.
The meaning of China’s actions were clear: to prepare the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) for an invasion of Taiwan