Site C decision will have ripple effects
I
n the first genuinely courageous decision I can recall a B.C. government taking in a long time, Premier John Horgan’s NDP administration has decided to proceed with the Site C dam. I call this courageous, because the conventional wisdom is that it will boost the fortunes of the Green Party at the NDP’s expense. Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver certainly thinks so.
“Today, Site C is no longer simply a B.C. Liberal boondoggle,” he proclaimed, “it has now become the B.C. NDP’s project.”
That brings Macbeth to mind: “This is a tale … full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” After all, this is the same man who, just a few years ago, called the dam a source of clean energy.
In short, any political damage arising from this decision is likely to be limited in the short run.
The real question is how it affects NDP chances at the 2021 election. Assuming the referendum on electoral reform passes, my guess is, scarcely at all. Let’s look at it from the viewpoint of the various parties.
During last May’s election, the percentage of the vote gained by the NDP and Liberals remained largely unchanged. What shifted the balance was a collapse in the Conservative total, from 4.5 per cent in 2013, to 0.5 per cent this time around. All of that switch went to the Greens.
I would call that a protest vote, in the sense there is scant common ground between the Tories and Greens.
These were Conservatives who weren’t ready to support the Liberals, but who saw little harm in parking their votes with a Green Party that, as things stood, could never form a government.
Next time around, however, that calculation changes. If the referendum passes, a vote for the Greens could potentially be a vote for a Green government. Are small-c conservatives ready for that?
On the Liberal side, a few of the party faithful stayed home in May, fed up perhaps with former premier Christy Clark’s joyless administration.
No sooner were the election results published, however, than an Angus Reid poll found remorse among the deserters.
They had not reckoned, it appeared, with an NDP win. Next time around, that calculation also changes.
On the NDP side, it’s no secret many MLAs were anguished at the decision to forge ahead with the dam. At the best of times, this is not an easy party to manage. Feelings run high and loyalties are fleeting.
But now that every vote counts (again assuming the referendum passes), it becomes far more difficult, and dangerous, to wander very far from the fold.
In essence, with a rep-by-pop system in place, party discipline hardens on all sides. No more heroic gestures and virtue signalling.
Last, there is the impact on the Interior to consider. This has been largely a Liberal fiefdom of date. Indeed, the Greens didn’t even run candidates in many of those ridings as recently as 2013.
With Green opposition to the Site C project shouted from the rooftops, it’s hard to see how they could improve their performance in that part of the province.
On the other hand, all of a sudden, it does become possible to imagine the NDP picking up a seat or two in the north.
In short, while the future is unclear, it’s entirely possible that Horgan’s decision will do his party little or no harm in the 2021 election. It might even hurt the Greens, as faithless conservatives turn to the Liberals, and nervy NDPers stay home.
If so, this was not only the right decision for the provincial economy, but the best road forward for an NDP that was otherwise dead meat.
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