Population remains in decline according to estimate
The city has continued to lose people, according to the provincial government’s latest estimate. As of July 2017, 70,316 people were living within city limits, according to numbers released last week by BC Stats. That’s a slight decline of 452 from the same point in 2016 and continuing a downward trend after reaching a peak of 74,071 in 2013.
But the figure could be in for a major revision – the agency is continuing to rely on the 2011 census as the basis for its estimate even though the 2016 total was released nearly a year ago.
Census results put the city’s population at 74,003, an increase of 2,209 five years before. The discrepancy was not lost on BC Stats. “It was noted that the population estimate for Prince George was quite a bit lower than the recently released 2016 census counts and we investigated by examining the changes in Hydro and the health client registry for the city,” the agency’s director, Jacqueline Storen, said in an email.
“The changes in health client registrations have either been flat or declining over the last few years which indicated a population decline, while small increases in the number of Hydro connections were observed.
“However, the Hydro increases weren’t enough to offset the decline in health care registrants. Consequently, the model estimated a population decline for Prince George.”
She said the latest census figures will be folded into future BC Stats estimates, once the figures have been adjusted for people who were missed and instances where there was over counting.
“It takes a little over two years from the most recent census to produce the net census under coverage estimate and incorporate it into the official population estimates which is why our estimates are still based on the 2011 census,” Storen said.
She said BC Stats’ estimates do not influence how much funding the city will get from the provincial government.
“Generally speaking the province will rely on the latest census figures (if the formula is per capita based) and/or other information for funding,” she said.
“However, these estimates do provide an indication of population change between censuses which isn’t found elsewhere and provide the basis for the BC Stats population estimates and projection programs.”