Dead heat in B.C. referendum on proportional representation: poll
With just days left to get a ballot in the mail for B.C.’s electoral referendum, a Research Co. poll shows a dead heat between those in favour and opposed to proportional representation. The deadline to have ballots into Elections B.C. is Nov. 30, but the two campaigns are urging voters to mail a ballot no later than this week. Voters also have an option to fill out or drop off completed ballots at referendum centres throughout B.C. but those centres have daytime hours only.
The latest poll results released by Research Co. Thursday show younger voters, 18 to 34, are more likely to be in favour of PR.
A majority of voters over 55 want to stick with the existing first-past-the-post system.
The results show an even split: 40 per cent definitely or probably in favour of FPTP and 40 per cent definitely or probably in favour of PR.
Among the 800 people surveyed from Nov. 14 to Nov. 16, 15 per cent were undecided, including 20 per cent among woman.
“We are feeling the urgency of the impending deadline,” said Maria Dobrinskaya, a leader for the Yes campaign.
“We’re focused on getting out the vote – phoning, texting and carrying out activity on campuses. We are encouraged but we know it’s going to be close.”
Bill Tieleman, a leader for the No side, said their strategy is to have new advertising on radio and TV in the remaining days of voting.
“We feel confident that voters will look at this and stick with the system they know,” said Tieleman.
In the third such referendum in B.C. in 18 years, British Columbians are being asked to rank three PR choices that use different methods to make the popular vote match the number of seats in the legislature.
Under FPTP, each seat is decided by a winner-take-all vote, often resulting in majority governments where the number of seats won is far greater than the proportion of votes.
Research Co. president Mario Canseco said the poll result that caught his attention was of those in favour of sticking with FPTP, the biggest reason was that they were confused by the options on the ballot.
Canseco said it makes it harder for the Yes side to sell an argument that PR is a fairer system when people are confused about the options.
“That’s a problem,” he said.
The three options include mixed member proportional, where 60 per cent of MLAs will continue to be elected by FPTP with the other 40 per cent distributed to parties to ensure seat totals reflect the popular vote.
Also on the list is a dual-member system where ridings will be combined with a neighbouring riding to form two-MLA ridings.
A few large, rural ridings will continue to be represented by one MLA.
The final system combines two systems.
Urban ridings will use a single transferable vote system where candidates are ranked in large ridings. Rural ridings will use the mixed member system.
Ballot returns – just 24 per cent as of Thursday – has also emerged as an issue that could lead to questions about the legitimacy of a Yes vote, particularly if the results are close.
Premier John Horgan, in favour of PR, has said he won’t set a minimum turnout for the result to be legitimate.
Bryan Breguet, a Langara College economics instructor, has used statistical analysis of the time it has taken ballots to be returned, to forecast that total returns are likely to be in the 30 per cent range unless a late surge in returns materializes.
Also using statistical analysis – incorporating voting ages – Breguet’s best guess is the No side is leading. However, he said it doesn’t mean it will remain that way.
We are feeling the urgency of the impending deadline. We’re focused on getting out the vote – phoning, texting and carrying out activity on campuses. We are encouraged but we know it’s going to be close.
— Maria Dobrinskaya