Election season returns
Hooray, election season is here! Yes, the length of such contests is exhausting, as our own E-day is more than seven months away and America’s almost 20. But fortune favours the bold, and when your opponent stumbles or you have an opportunity to clarify your position, you must seize it.
The former occurred here when the SNC-Lavalin scandal came to light, and the latter manifested in U.S. President Trump’s State of the Union address to Congress last week.
After a rocky start to 2019 due to the government shutdown, Trump’s support had weakened.
Tensions had grown so high Democrats said the SOTU might not be conducted in the Congress. Finally, with the government reopened and a brief ceasefire, the president took the podium to address the entire U.S. government and the nation.
What ensued was a piece of showmanship and political savvy, from the rhetoric Trump used to the guests he recognized.
By the end of his speech, Trump had clearly laid down the groundwork for a second run and he had set the underlying theme for the ensuing campaign: “I am asking you to choose greatness,” and, “we renew our resolve that America will never be a socialist country.”
The media panned it, ignoring that the vast majority of viewers agreed with the speech. But more importantly, the Democratic contenders for president continue to outbid each other for the title of furthest to the left.
Thus, Trump has won the argument; now he must win the election.
Meanwhile in Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been accused of influencing his own former attorney general, Jody Wilson-Raybould, to drop charges of corruption against SNC-Lavalin.
Breaking news: in the midst of my typing, Wilson-Raybould has resigned from Trudeau’s cabinet over said allegations, which, to put it politely, does not inspire confidence in our prime minister’s innocence. Look for more on this story on page 7 in The Citizen.
That this may have cost Trudeau the election seems obvious, but arguably it was clear before the latest news. Our prime minister declared “Canada is back” upon his ascension, and he was right in a sense: back to Liberal governments defined by scandals and clientelism. The final albatross around Trudeau’s neck is the fact that “transparent government” was a key plank in his platform; now his attacks on former prime minister Stephen Harper’s secretiveness ring hollow.
Arguably, there is still hope for our Mr. T in Ottawa, just as there are plenty of dangers for Mr. T in Washington.
With so much time still to pass and with so many unknown factors waiting in the wings, can anyone really make proper predictions, or are we pundits just blowing smoke?
No political contest or referendum is a purely rational exercise simply because we the electorate are not purely rational beings.
In fact, it is the metanarrative that swings voters from one side to
No political contest or referendum is a purely rational exercise simply because we, the electorate, are not purely rational beings.
the other.
Thus, the real question is which candidate has the most compelling story?
The two candidates in question could not have more different tales. Trump has faced non-stop resistance since his election in 2016; this has actually worked in his favour, for as he seeks reelection, he retains the role of “underdog” while gaining the advantage of incumbency.
Trudeau on the other hand rode the underdog wave into office, but with scandals and policy failures piling up, as well as his father’s shadow, his underpreparedness is becoming palpable.
Or to put it another way, Trump has nothing to lose: as the classic tragic hero, he’ll find redemption in a second term, or die a martyr, killed by a corrupt system. But Trudeau is Icarus: he was told not to fly too high and now his wax wings are melting.
In our age of data, such references appear archaic. Then again, as these newly begun campaigns will also prove, no successful candidate was nicknamed after their polling numbers.