Residents remain behind TMX pipeline
The federal government has re-approved the proposed expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline, in a decision that was widely expected. Public opinion in British Columbia had been trending in favour of the project when Ottawa announced in May 2018 that it was purchasing the existing pipeline and its expansion for $4.5 billion.
In the most recent Research Co. survey, 56 per cent of British Columbians agreed with the federal government’s decision to re-approve the pipeline expansion, while 33 per cent disagreed and 11 per cent were undecided.
The re-approval has not made the project suddenly uncontentious.
Our survey also outlined health and safety concerns from residents, a massive expectation of job creation, disappointment with the federal government and wide skepticism in the Alberta government’s view that a pipeline would undoubtedly bring lower gas prices to British Columbia.
On the political front, only 41 per cent of British Columbians believe the provincial government should do anything necessary to ensure that the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion does not happen.
British Columbians are split on whether the pipeline expansion threatens the health and safety of residents (46 per cent agree and 44 per cent disagree).
The level of concern with detrimental side effects is highest among women (56 per cent), residents aged 18 to 34 (58 per cent) and Metro Vancouverites (50 per cent).
These are significant proportions, but are well below the level of animosity that the project provoked before it was purchased by Ottawa.
Speaking of the federal government, three in five British Columbians (59 per cent) are disappointed with the way it has handled the Trans Mountain expansion.
This includes, unsurprisingly, 95 per cent of those who are “strongly opposed” to the project and 75 per cent of those who are “moderately opposed.” But among “moderate” and “strong” supporters of the project, 50 per cent are dissatisfied with how this file has been dealt with.
Our survey also shows that just 30 per cent of British Columbians recall being exposed to the advertising campaign initiated by the new government of Alberta in an attempt to pressure British
Columbia to endorse the pipeline expansion.
Among those who saw the ads, just one third (32 per cent) said they were more likely to support the expansion – a proportion that includes many who already did. The campaign did little to engage with all British Columbians.
Recall of the ads is satisfactory among “strong” supporters of the project (47 per cent), but negligible among “moderate” supporters (28 per cent), “moderate” opponents (25 per cent) and “strong” opponents (21 per cent).
In addition, residents are not fully persuaded by one of the key messages of the campaign. While 39 per cent of British Columbians believe that gas prices would be lower in British Columbia now that the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion has been re-approved, 33 per cent disagree and 28 per cent are undecided.
The aftermath of this campaign recalls the 1993 movie Dave, where the title character played by Kevin Kline is impersonating the president of the United States and is desperately trying to find room in the budget for a project.
During a cabinet meeting, Dave asks the secretary of commerce why he’s spending on an ad campaign to “boost consumer confidence in the American auto industry.”
The cabinet member replies, “It’s designed to bolster individual confidence in a previous domestic automotive purchase,” Dave retorts.
“So we’re spending $47 million dollars to make people feel better about a car they’ve already bought?” Seconds later, the disbursement is effectually scratched from the budget.
This is precisely what the new government of Alberta has accomplished in attempting to engage British Columbians on the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion. The campaign succeeded in making some residents more supportive of a project that a majority was already supporting.
It would seem that Alberta’s premier needs to be more like Dave – especially at a time when economic uncertainty continues to affect many families in the province that he actually governs – and leave “war room” theatrics where they belong: in the realm of fiction.