Mud is about to fly: One year until ‘ugliest ever’ B.C. election
Strategists will study the polls — never mind they were so wrong last time
The cheap shots will fly and the mud will flow: The countdown has begun to what one battlehardened political warrior predicts will be the “ugliest ever” B.C. election campaign.
Election day is May 9, 2017 — one year from Monday — and tough-talking Liberal cabinet minister Bill Bennett is preparing for a downand-dirty affair.
“I anticipate the ugliest campaign we’ve ever seen — and the ugliness will come from the NDP,” the mines minister said.
“They will be desperate. They will have not been in power for 16 years. We’re expecting a lot of mud to be thrown at us.”
The New Democrats have been stuck on the wrong side of the legislature since 2001, the year Gordon Campbell’s Liberals took power after a decade of NDP rule.
It appeared the NDP’s time in political purgatory would end in the 2013 election. But Christy Clark — who replaced Campbell after the Liberal government’s HST debacle — overcame a 20-point deficit in the polls to pull off an upset win for the ages.
The shell-shocked New Democrats think they went too easy on Clark last time. Now they will be tougher, said NDP leader John Horgan.
“We’re going to be aggressive on the government’s record,” Horgan said.
“But it’s not good enough to focus only on the government’s failures. You need to give people optimism and hope that things will be better.”
Horgan plans to do that by stressing enhanced government services — including better schools, hospitals and seniors’ homes — and relief for middle-class families who find life increasingly unaffordable under Clark’s Liberals.
“Housing costs, Hydro rates, ICBC premiums, Medical Services Plan premiums, Hydro bills, ferry fares — they all keep going up while people’s wages have been flat for a decade,” Horgan said.
Clark, meanwhile, will focus on the relatively robust B.C. economy and the government’s four consecutive balanced budgets (expected to be five by election day). What does she have to do to keep her job? “Making sure we continue to grow the economy,” Clark answered. “Demonstrating to British Columbians why a balanced budget matters. And, most importantly, showing the difference between trying to say ‘Yes’ to growth and saying ‘No’ to everything.”
She’s referring to the NDP’s opposition to a pair of controversial megaprojects: the Site C dam near Fort St. John and the proposed Pacific Northwest liquefied natural gas project near Prince Rupert.
That’s where the New Democrats expect the Liberals to throw their own share of mud: Clark and company will use negative attack ads to brand the New Democrats as anti-business enemies of the economy.
And the New Democrats are bracing for the Liberals to go negative and nasty against Horgan personally.
“They will try character assassination by repetition advertising,” said NDP provincial director Michael Gardiner. “The Liberals have the money to do it.”
Negative ads worked effectively for the Libs last time. But the mastermind of Clark’s 2013 election victory — strategist Mike McDonald — said there’s a difference this time around.
“People were caught by surprise that we managed to pull off the win,” McDonald said. “Now we’re starting in a much stronger position. In some ways, that’s tougher.
“The NDP can easily roll into a campaign with 38 or 39 per cent support — a pretty strong base to start with. If anyone thinks this is going to be a cakewalk for the Liberals, they’re mistaken. It will be a tough election.”
Bennett, the Liberal mines minister, said the biggest danger for the Liberals is over-confidence.
“We’re the favourite,” Bennett said. “I don’t like being the favourite. Christy Clark doesn’t like to be the favourite. It makes you nervous.”
It’s a point Clark frequently hammers home in closed-door Liberal meetings, Bennett revealed.
“The premier keeps reminding us at every caucus meeting: ‘Don’t get cocky, don’t get over-confident, don’t get complacent. Because we can lose.’ ”
A wild card in the election will be a Green Party led by hard-working MLA Andrew Weaver. It will be the first time the Greens campaign with a leader who already holds a seat in the legislature.
Weaver said he hopes to rise above the mudslinging NDP-Liberal fray.
“Voters are sick of the ultra-negative, destructive politics of our province,” Weaver said. “It’s amazing how many visitors to the legislature come up to me after question period and say, ‘That was awful to watch. I’m joining the Green Party.’ ”
Remember where you heard this first a year from now: Weaver is a strong speaker and he could throw the election for a loop with a breakthrough televised debate performance against Clark and Horgan.
“Oh, I can’t wait for the debate,” he said with a smile. “I hope we do multiple debates.”
There will be just one TV debate, but it could be enough for Weaver to shake things up.
As the one-year countdown clock starts ticking, strategists in all parties will be closely examining opinion polls (never mind they were so wrong last time.)
“We’re up a few points and we have a premier who’s increasingly unpopular,” said the NDP’s Gardiner. “Her negatives are tracking higher and people feel she’s out of touch. The election in many ways will be a referendum on Christy Clark.”
But that actually suits the Liberals, who think Clark is a warmer and more likable personality than the sometimes-prickly Horgan.
“If you asked people who they would rather go out and have a beer with — John Horgan or Christy Clark — she would probably win that hands down,” said the Liberals’ McDonald.
The NDP will try to erode Clark’s appeal — watch for continued attacks on her newly revealed $50,000 Liberal party salary top-up, for example — while Clark keeps stressing jobs and the economy.
Bennett is right: She is the favourite to win again. But anything can happen in B.C.