Robertson’s base remains potentially strong
Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson may have the lowest approval rating among Canada’s big-city leaders, but that need not spell defeat for the third-term mayor if he appears on the ballot next year.
While political observers saw failed policies as fuelling Robertson’s relatively low approval ratings, released Monday by national pollster Mainstreet Research, they agreed it will take a candidate with broad appeal to defeat him. That’s because, experts say, the numbers also show a large contingent of strong supporters who could sway a vote if they turned out.
Robertson’s approval rating was 50 per cent, according to Mainstreet’s telephone survey, conducted Jan. 3 and 4. That was the lowest among the mayors of Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina, Winnipeg, Windsor, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal.
But a whopping 41 per cent of residents strongly approve of him — a far larger portion of the electorate than any other major city mayor can claim, according to the results. Only Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson comes close.
What the numbers say to Andy Yan, the director of Simon Fraser University’s city program, is that “re-election is not a slam dunk.”
The results put 48 to 50 per cent of respondents under the age of 50 and 45 per cent of women strongly approving of the mayor.
For Yan, the big question was whether they’d turn out to the polls.
History may not be on Robertson’s side, given that Vancouver mayors have tended not to sit longer than two terms in recent years. “People get tired of regimes,” Yan said.
That said, the mayor’s approval ratings were far higher than those for council overall. “That suggests that people don’t particularly have an idea of who can be there instead of Gregor,” he said.
Pete Fry, a community activist who ran a strong but unsuccessful bid for city council with the Green party in 2014, said failed policy may explain some of the disapproval. To that end he pointed to the loss of Chinatown to gentrification, the enduring housing affordability crisis and Robertson’s losing fight against the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion.
But Fry did not discount the mayor’s chances in 2018. He noted that Vision Vancouver’s fundraising campaigns are strong, and its appeal to younger voters could bear fruit.
Besides, those who don’t approve of Robertson may not vote either, Fry said. “They may well be looking for an alternative, but I don’t really see anything on the horizon.”
Fry also noted that the results should be “taken with a grain of salt,” given that the poll was conducted at the height of frustration over ice and snow on city streets and alleys.
Mike Klassen, a political commentator and noted critic of the mayor, said he sensed a weariness as to how the city was being run. He pointed to things like an unmet promise to end homelessness, lingering anger along Commercial Drive over a bike lane and tower, lawsuits from community centres, and seemingly poor relations with Victoria (and perhaps Ottawa) as piling up.
David Valentin, the executive vice-president of Mainstreet, a national public research firm with 20 years of political experience, called the results a snapshot in time, and said he intended to run the poll again.
The margin of error of the survey’s sample is plus or minus 3.95 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
Robertson has repeatedly said he intends to run for a fourth term.