Leafs face long odds without Zaitsev
Toronto’s thin blueline corps can’t afford loss of stalwart rookie defenceman
There was little chance for the young Maple Leafs to beat the rather deep Washington Capitals in a playoff series before yesterday. There’s less of a chance today. The playoffs begin Thursday night for the Leafs in Washington and the euphoria of Saturday night has already been lost in time, trampled on by the reality of Sunday’s defeat to Columbus and the injury suffered by stalwart rookie defenceman Nikita Zaitsev.
So, in a matter of a few days, the possibility of playing an equal in the Ottawa Senators disappeared, and in Sunday’s loss to the Blue Jackets, so has Zaitsev, who is such an important component on a team already thin on defence.
The point lost, whether it be against Columbus, in a blown lead during the regular season or in a shootout defeat, is something that can’t be changed now. But it certainly can be regretted by those not playing for the Leafs. And instead of a flip-a-coin series against Ottawa, there’s this mountain to climb now, a best-of-seven set against the strongest, deepest team in the Eastern Conference and possibly the entire NHL.
The Leafs led 2-0 on Sunday night and then mysteriously stopped playing, lost Zaitsev and lost the game. First the Leafs called it a lower body injury, in the quaint terminology invented by the late Pat Quinn. Then they altered the public diagnosis to upper body injury.
The not so subtle whisper around is, of course, concussion.
On Tuesday, I was told by the kind of person you should always believe that Zaitsev would be all right and available to play in Game 1 against Washington. He was convinced of it. But on Wednesday, after practice, Mike Babcock began his daily meet-the-press session with the announcement that Zaitsev was not available to play.
He didn’t say what the injury was. He was only as forthcoming as he needed to be, under the circumstances. And he announced, gulp, that Martin Marincin, who occasionally looks like an NHL player, will take Zaitsev’s place on the Leafs blue line.
My guess, based on the conversation I had Tuesday, is that whatever head trauma Zaitsev suffered Sunday night didn’t meet the baseline test standards on Wednesday. And much as the Leafs wanted him back — and he may have wanted back in himself — the medical people, as it should be, prevailed here.
So Zaitsev is out and Marincin, who was deemed good enough to play two games in February, and two games in March, is in.
This throws much of Babcock’s planning into disarray. Babcock is a stickler for how he prefers his defence pairings set up. He likes to play left-handed shots on the left side and right-handed shots on the right side. Zaitsev is a right-handed shot. Marincin is a left-handed shot. The Leafs will have to play someone on their wrong side — that someone happening to be lining up on the side Alexander Ovechkin sets up his office space.
Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner are exciting, unpredictable and flawed on the Leafs defence: they chase the game too often, rather than play it. And sometimes they can change the game. They’re that skilled.
As a third pairing, Roman Polak and Matt Hunwick have proven to be rather dependable this season, especially facing third and fourth lines. They also did strong work on the penalty kill. But odds are, Polak will have to be moved up in the lineup, having his playing time increased, which should increase his exposure against Washington.
Marincin hasn’t been deemed good enough to play on this rather ordinary defence and Connor Carrick was Washington property a year or so ago and wasn’t able to crack their lineup.
The Caps picked up free agent Kevin Shattenkirk at the trade deadline and their defence is so deep they play him on their third pairing with Brooks Orpik — although most of his effectiveness is found on the power play.
John Carlson is expected to return from injury to return to his spot with Karl Alzner, which leaves Matt Niskanen and Dmitry Orlov as the other duo. The Washington backup, Nate Schmidt, would be a regular with the Leafs.
It isn’t impossible for the Leafs to beat Washington but it’s pretty darn close.
Curtis Joseph’s Edmonton Oilers knocked off the Dallas Stars in the first round of the 1997 Stanley Cup playoffs. There were 23 points between those teams back then, just as there are 23 points between the Leafs and Capitals now.
It happens sometimes
The last time the Leafs won the Stanley Cup, in 1967, they matched up against the Chicago Blackhawks in Round 1. There was 21 points between Toronto and Chicago back then. The Leafs won in six games.
Years later, a Leafs team made the playoffs with only 57 points, then knocked off a Chicago club that finished 29 points higher. They beat them three straight in a best-of-five Norris Division series. The Leafs were led in that playoff series by rookies Wendel Clark and Steve Thomas. Just as they’re led by rookies today.
Anything may be possible. We’ve seen it enough times before.
But without Zaitsev, who plays all situations, and whose calling card is so dependable the Leafs are willing to invest seven more years in him, that window doesn’t just close, it slams shut.