The deal: What you need to know
The NDP and Green party have come to an agreement, and Liberals look at next steps
1 Who is in charge of the province right now, and what kind of political power do they have?
Christy Clark remains premier, and will be premier until she resigns or is asked to resign by the lieutenant-governor after a non-confidence vote in the house.
But as premier, Clark is in a weak position. If the agreement between the B.C. NDP and the B.C. Greens holds up, it means Clark won’t have enough seats to win confidence votes.
“It might be harsh but not inaccurate to say she is, at present, a lameduck premier,” said Norman Ruff, associate professor emeritus at the University of Victoria.
2 What’s next?
Christy Clark has a decision to make.
If she thinks the NDP-Greens alliance is robust, then she should resign and give the other parties a chance to form government, said pundits.
But if she thinks the alliance is shaky or could unravel, she can recall the legislature and test her mandate in the house.
If she does that and loses, she can resign or push this even further and recommend an election. It would then be up to the lieutenant-governor to call a new election or, more likely, ask NDP Leader John Horgan and Green party Leader Andrew Weaver to form a government.
3 What could trigger the government to fall?
The first test will be the Throne Speech, which outlines a government’s agenda and marks the opening of the legislature. The opposition parties can tack on a vote of non-confidence on the speech.
A second test would be when the government runs out of money on Sept. 30. The house would be required to vote on a budget before then — a confidence measure. If the house votes against it, the government will fall.
4 What is Clark going to do?
In a statement issued soon after Horgan and Weaver’s joint press conference, Clark said she is considering her next steps in consultation with the B.C. Liberal caucus.
She does not appear to be conceding defeat in the statement, saying: “It’s vitally important that British Columbians see the specific details of the agreement announced today by the B.C. NDP and Green party leaders, which could have far-reaching consequences for our province’s future.”
5 Is it game over for Clark?
Even though most political watchers say it would be unseemly for Clark to hang on as premier under current circumstances, there is no rule that says she will have to step down as leader of the B.C. Liberals.
Webber said despite the current agreement between the NDP and the Greens, that alliance, which enjoys a mere one-seat advantage, still has to be formally tested and survive a confidence vote in the house.
“You could very much imagine the Liberals would then try to undermine that grouping and attempt to persuade one or more MLAs to shift their allegiance,” said Jeremy Webber, dean of law at the University of Victoria.
While a scenario where an NDP or Green MLA crosses the floor is “unlikely” at this point, it would be the “better solution” for the Liberals rather than have Clark “cling to office in a way that looks like you’re not accepting the results,” he said.