The future of B.C. politics in Clark’s hands — for now, at least

A power-sharing deal may be in place between the B.C. NDP and Green parties, but what’s next in B.C. politics is in the hands of Premier Christy Clark.

With the B.C. Liberals winning the most seats in the May 9 election, Clark remains premier. But some pundits and political watchers say her time is up.

“She has to decide whether to resign in light of … a credible agreement between the NDP and the Greens, or try to form government and see if she can give a speech from the throne and pass the budget,” said Max Cameron, a political scientist at the University of B.C.

Given the numbers — together the Greens and NDP hold 44 seats, one seat more than the Liberals in the 87-seat legislature — the confidence motion will likely be defeated, said Cameron. “The elegant thing for her to do is resign.”

Simon Fraser University political scientist David Moscrop said Clark could drag out the process to the fall, or “go gently into the good night.”

“This could take a while, but I think she is done,” said Moscrop, who is skeptical Clark would keep her status as leader of the B.C. Liberals after stepping down from the premiership. “There is very little chance of surviving this politically. The thing to do now is to leave in a dignified way.”

On Monday, Clark wasn’t ready to concede defeat.

Her office issued a statement, saying: “As the incumbent government, and the party with the most seats in the legislature, we have a responsibility to carefully consider our next steps. I will consult on those steps with the newly elected B.C. Liberal caucus, and have more to say tomorrow.”

If Clark doesn’t resign, the government’s first challenge will come in the fall in a confidence motion, such as a throne speech or a budget vote. If she fails to win the confidence of the legislature, Clark would be expected to resign or recommend an election.

Lieutenant-Governor Judith Guichon can accept the recommendation or ask NDP Leader John Horgan to form a government.

Jeremy Webber, dean of law at the University of Victoria, said he doesn’t think Clark will push the political process that far.

“I think she will (resign),” he said. “It’s not a surprise she didn’t do it today. Sometimes these political agreements start to unravel, it’s quite reasonable of her to say we are considering the situation.”

If Clark drags this out, she would be putting the Lt.-Gov. in an uncommon and unpleasant situation, he said.

Despite the agreement between the NDP and the Greens, the game isn’t over, he noted. Horgan’s and Weaver’s alliance still has to survive a confidence vote in the house with only a razor-thin majority.

A scenario where an NDP or Green MLA crosses the floor is “unlikely” at this point, but it would be the “better solution” for the Liberals rather than have Clark “cling to office in a way that looks like you’re not accepting the results of the election.”

But at least one longtime political scientist isn’t ruling out a fight from a premier known for her scrappy political style and nicknamed “the comeback kid.”

“This is a test of political will,” said Norman Ruff, associate professor emeritus of political science at the University of Victoria. “She will not necessarily just roll over. She may try to meet the house and try to remain as premier. I don’t rule it out, especially given the numbers.”