More twists to come in B.C.’s power struggle
Former MLA Bill Bennett predicts quick collapse of NDP-Green bromance
Back in 2013, Bill Bennett was one of the few people who thought Christy Clark’s Liberals would win the B.C. election, even though they were 20 points behind in the polls.
In 2017, though the Liberals were favoured to win again, the tough-talking former Liberal MLA had a different premonition.
“I didn’t have that same gut feeling this time,” said Bennett, who did not seek re-election in May, but is still technically Clark’s energy minister until she picks a new cabinet.
His foreboding got worse after the Liberals rolled out a boring, stand-pat election platform with little new spending and few new promises.
“There was just something lame about the campaign,” he said. “It was too under-stated. Nobody was really excited about it.”
The Liberals were reduced to a minority government. And now it appears Clark will lose power after John Horgan’s NDP and Andrew Weaver’s Green party signed a power-sharing accord, agreeing to topple the Liberals at the first opportunity.
Their chance will come later this month, after Clark recalled the legislature for Thursday, June 22.
That’s the day Lt.-Gov. Judith Guichon will read a throne speech outlining Clark’s plans for the province. But it’s bound to be a doomed vision for B.C., as the NDP and Greens are almost certain to vote it down.
That would force Clark’s resignation, and Guichon would likely ask Horgan to form an NDP government backed by the Greens, giving them a razor-thin one-seat majority in the legislature: 44 seats for the NDP-Green alliance to 43 seats for Clark’s Liberals.
The newly elected MLAs from all three parties were sworn in at the legislature last week. And even though Clark is still the premier, and the Liberals are still the government, their ceremony was more like a funeral.
The NDP and the Greens were practically giddy by comparison, anticipating they will soon seize power after 16 years of Liberal rule.
But a lot can go wrong when operating with such a small margin for error. And Bennett thinks the NDP-Green love-in won’t last long.
“I don’t think they are going to stay pals,” Bennett said. “Especially when they have to deal with the Site C dam.”
The $8.8-billion hydroelectric dam on the Peace River near Fort St. John is the most expensive public-sector megaproject in B.C. history.
B.C. Hydro has already spent $1.75 billion on the dam, and continues to spend $2 million a day at a massive construction site employing 2,200 workers.
Horgan has threatened to shut down the project — arguing it is too expensive and we don’t need the power anyway — depending on the outcome of a fast-tracked review by the B.C. Utilities Commission.
Bennett, still technically the minister responsible for Site C, thinks the project has progressed too far down the road to stop it.
“I don’t believe for one minute that John Horgan is going to kill the Site C project — not when he has more than 2,000 workers and their families watching him,” Bennett said.
“What is Andrew Weaver going to think about that? What is Weaver going to do when he wakes up one day and realizes he was duped and Horgan’s promises to him were bogus?”
Weaver is vehemently opposed to the dam and campaigned to shut it down immediately without a review.
Would the Weaver-Horgan political bromance really go sour if an NDP government agreed to finish construction of the dam?
Weaver said the alliance would continue if that happened, though he made it clear he would blame the NDP for it. “If Site C goes ahead, the NDP will wear it,” he said.
But there could be other problems for the NDP-Green tag team. Consider, for example, that Horgan promised to balance the budget, while Weaver promised deficits.
I asked Horgan if he will keep his promise to balance the books.
“I can’t give a firm commitment until we know what the status of the legislature is,” he told me. “I’m going to wait to see how this unfolds and then we’ll go from there.” Bennett chuckled at the non-answer. “He can’t balance the budget and pay for all his promises, especially when you combine them with all the promises the Greens made,” he said. “They are going to have a lot of trouble.”
And that’s why Bennett is now having another premonition: A Christy Clark comeback.
“The public will quickly get a taste of what an NDP government is like, and not just huge budget deficits,” he said. “They will see what the NDP really stands for and how bad they are at governing and managing.”
The Liberals, meanwhile, will have the largest and most-experienced opposition caucus in B.C. history, led by Clark.
“Horgan and Weaver will be no match for her,” he said. “They will have a lot of difficulties and it could be a very short-lived government.
“That will put the Liberals in an excellent position in an election that could come sooner than many think. I believe Christy Clark will then become premier again.”
Or the NDP-Green alliance could hold together, and run a competent government that does a lot of popular things. Then some Liberals could turn against Clark for that lousy campaign she ran.
It’s been a month of incredible twists and turns since the election. But don’t take too long to catch your breath. The drama has only just begun.