Byelection serves as a report card for Vision party

For a byelection that won’t fundamentally change the power dynamics at Vancouver City Hall, the fight over the council seat vacated by Geoff Meggs is shaping up to be an important political event for the city.

Meggs, as everyone knows, decided to abandon his responsibilities to Vancouver voters and take a far-better-paying job as chief of staff to incoming NDP premier John Horgan.

His departure leaves city council with nine councillors — five Vision members (Heather Deal, Kerry Jang, Raymond Louie, Andrea Reimer and Tim Stevenson), three Non-Partisan Association members (George Affleck, Elizabeth Ball and Melissa De Genova) and one Green party member in Adriane Carr.

That means that, even if the yet-tobe-decided Vision candidate loses the byelection expected in mid-October, that party will continue to hold five of 10 votes on council, with Vision Mayor Gregor Robertson still in place to break any tie vote. So no one upset by the excesses of the Vision regime should expect any relief after the vote, even if someone opposed to the Vision agenda is elected.

But that doesn’t mean the byelection — which Robertson says will cost taxpayers more than $1 million (thanks Geoff ) — isn’t important.

If Vision wins, it will be a clear endorsement of its policies, and that’s certainly not out of the question, given the recent victories that the Vision-linked NDP enjoyed in the city in May’s provincial election, not that voters will necessarily vote the same way at the municipal level.

But it’s worth noting that the NDP won eight of 11 Vancouver ridings, securing 134,241 total votes compared with 87,470 for the Liberals — nearly 47,000 more votes. When you add in the 34,357 voters who backed the Green party in the provincial election, one can see that the Liberal-aligned NPA may face an uphill battle in the byelection.

Having said that, NPA council candidates actually received more votes in the last city election on Nov. 15, 2014, securing, collectively, 475,210 votes compared with the 462,384 Vision councillor votes. After top vote-getter Carr, who received 74,077, the three elected NPA councillors all received more votes than Deal, the Vision candidate who received the most votes at 62,698.

As well, Vision lost control of the Vancouver school and park boards, as its popularity fell more than seven per cent from the previous election in 2011.

With Vision continuing to run the city with little regard for critics — attacks on opponents of the 105 Keefer development being the most recent example of the party’s arrogance — the byelection presents an opportunity for unhappy voters to send the ruling party a message, something that’s common in byelections.

In recent days, many names of potential candidates for the council seat have been tossed about — from fired Vancouver school trustee Patti Bacchus for Vision, Pete Fry for the Greens, to current park commissioners John Coupar and Sarah Kirby-Yung for the NPA, as well as 2014 NPA mayoral candidate Kirk LaPointe.

Representatives from the left wing parties COPE and OneCity Vancouver have also mused publicly about fielding byelection candidates, although their odds of winning are extremely low, especially since the byelection will be a report card by voters on how Vision has been running the city. Either they’ll back the Vision candidate, whomever that turns out to be, or they’ll rally around an opponent, most likely the NPA candidate. The Greens, especially given the NDP-Green coalition provincially, are just more of the same.

None of the current NPA councillors appear to be future NPA mayoral candidates. If that party is serious at taking a run at Vision in the next full city election in November 2018, they should pick someone to run for council so they can get engaged with city issues and develop the public profile LaPointe lacked in the last election, something necessary for political success.

While the byelection won’t immediately rid Vancouver of Vision, it may set the stage for another party to take control next year. That’s why it will be an important event in Vancouver’s political life.