COMING TO TERMS WITH A POSTER BO(Y)
Canucks crunching all kinds of numbers on extending centre’s contract:
There is a formula to factor future National Hockey League potential. Those involved in scouting and player development believe that, outside of generational players like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews, there’s an eight-year window to maximize performance.
They believe that, in most cases, it takes five years to get most players to a level where they can make a considerable playoff contribution, and then that effectiveness usually lasts three years.
What does this mean in the ongoing Bo Horvat contract extension negotiations? It depends on how much you buy into the theory — and how it may or may not apply to the Canucks’ restricted free agent centre.
Horvat, 22, is entering his fourth season this fall, and by the end of his sixth campaign, the theory is that he’ll be at his most productive from ages 24- 27 — just when the rebuilding Canucks should be back in the playoff picture.
It’s why a six-year extension has been the buzz since comparable contracts that consider age and production started showing up last summer. And it’s why, when the Edmonton Oilers locked up their future in Connor McDavid last week, it wasn’t a stretch to suggest the Canucks could do the same by signing Horvat to an eight-year commitment.
Of course, the difference is how the parties project where Horvat will be in two years.
With Henrik Sedin in retirement, the pecking order down the middle could be Elias Pettersson, 20, Horvat, 24, and Adam Gaudette, 22. That’s young, but look around the league. It’s a growing trend at centre, especially in a rebuild.
Leon Draisaitl, 21, had 29 goals for the Oilers last season while William Nylander, 21, and Mitch Marner, 20, had 22 and 19 goals respectively for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Canucks see Horvat as a poster boy for everything that’s right.
Amiable and accountable, he’s all in on the everyday process to be everything he can be. The bulllike centre is durable, missing just one game over the last two seasons. He’s become better at faceoffs, better in shutdown roles and is skating so much better than he did as a 2013 first-round pick who was initially projected to be a third line centre.
However, though he led the Canucks in scoring last season with 52 points (20 goals, 32 assists), Horvat didn’t score in his final 17 games. He took 38 shots in that span, including a six-shot outing, and there was no lack of effort in bold rushes to the net and a down-low presence. But all that only produced the clang of pucks hitting crossbars and posts and plenty of head shaking.
That could factor into how the Canucks perceive Horvat’s future production value, because they certainly don’t doubt his mental makeup or the ability to bring along the next core of players. That includes six players who are 23 or younger and will be on the opening night roster, and three others who will push for a spot.
When the Montreal Canadiens acquired Jonathan Drouin from the Tampa Bay Lightning, they signed the 21-goal winger to a six-year, US$33 million extension last month. It included a no-trade clause in the final two years — three teams on a no-go list — but it also pushed the salary bar higher.
Horvat’s camp could argue that he plays a more demanding position, is deployed in more key situations and should be rewarded for being the club’s leading scorer.
The Canucks could counter with what they did in a five-year contract extension for Brandon Sutter in August of 2015.
The centre had a year left on his existing deal and his next pact included a no-trade clause in the first three years and modified no-trade in the final two. It means that, in 2019-20 and 202021, a player general manager Jim Benning labelled “a foundation piece” can submit a list of 15 teams he can’t be traded to.
If the Canucks want some similar clout with Horvat in a six-year deal, a modified no-trade clause would imply a lack of offensive confidence, because players usually reach their prime at ages 27 or 28.
If they still want some sort of hammer in an eight-year commitment, they could apply a modified no-trade to the final two years and have flexibility with Horvat at ages 29 and 30, when production tends to diminish.
Horvat didn’t return a call on Monday, but said back in January that he was aware of his place in the game, and what it might mean financially.
“You’re always looking at what other guys get, but I don’t look too far into it,” he said. “Obviously, you see what they’re getting and what they deserve, but we’ll leave that up to the agents, and see what happens.
“It’s just keeping it in the back of your mind and playing. That’s my main concern and it has helped me out. You can only control what you can control.
“By maturing as a two-way centre, who can play in key situations or kill penalties, you want to be a guy they can count on.
“And I always want to push myself to be better.”
That should make a difference when Horvat finally signs on the dotted line.