WHAT IS BO WORTH?
Expected to be the Canucks’ next captain, and centrepiece of a rebuild back to respectability, Horvat’s pending contract extension has made for great debate
Formulas, facts and forecasts are applicable and debatable to determine the true worth of Bo Horvat.
The Vancouver Canucks’ restricted free-agent centre is still seeking a contract extension and because the National Hockey League club is sold on its future captain, term isn’t going to be as big a hurdle as the annual average value of what could — and should — be a six-year commitment because the club has balked at eight years.
Former Canucks assistant general manager Laurence Gilman, who was part of the management team that selected Horvat ninth overall in the 2013 draft, understandably stated on TSN 1040 during a far-reaching, two-hour radio segment Wednesday morning that the 22-year-old is “the real deal.”
He also speculated that because of the ever-changing landscape with recent restricted free-agent signings — and Horvat’s growing stature within the organization — that the team’s leading scorer should be compensated with an extension that starts at $5 million US annually.
That would put Horvat in the annual average value company of New York Rangers’ centre Mika Zibanejad, 24, and Minnesota Wild winger Nino Niederreiter, 24, who signed on July 25 and Sunday respectively for annual salary-cap hits of $5.3M and $5.2M. That’s a lot for players who have never eclipsed 25 goals, but the market has shifted.
What seemed like a good comparable last summer when Florida Panthers’ centre/winger Vincent Trocheck was 23 and parlayed a 25-goal, 53-point season into a sixyear, $28.5M extension — a $4.75M annual cap hit and a salary that started at $3.75M and topped out at $6.25M — has been trumped.
Granted, Zibanejad and Niederreiter are older and have bigger bodies of work, but the ask of Horvat is going to be even bigger. He’s going to get tougher matchups as a strong two-way centre, get more offensive start-zone starts under new coach Travis Green, take key faceoffs, contribute to special teams and eventually wear the ‘C’.
What’s all that worth for a player who led the Canucks with 52 points based on a career-high 20 goals and 32 assists — despite not scoring in his final 17 games — improving his plus-minus from minus-30 to minus-7 and having a 50.4 per cent faceoff efficiency rate? Well, that’s the great debate. Canucks general manger Jim Benning is reluctant to comment on contract negotiations, but did say this much when reached Wednesday in Oregon. He has $8.1M remaining in salary-cap space to sign Horvat, RFA centre/winger Brendan Gaunce, who had shoulder surgery April 20, and leave wiggle room for possible roster moves.
And because Benning always believed a Horvat agreement could take the bulk of the summer, it’s not a stretch to suggest there’s either a significant gap to bridge or that Horvat’s agent is doing his due diligence and using every significant RFA signing as leverage.
“I think the talks are progressing and I think we’ll get something done,” said Benning, who expects to reach a contract resolution before training camp. “It’s a typical negotiation because he’s a real good player and a good person, but I’m not going to comment publicly on the negotiation process.
“I would say that everything has been positive to this point and we’ll just continue to go through the process because Bo is a very good young player for us and we want to figure something out that is fair to him and fair to the team.”
Zibanejad’s five-year, $26.7M extension is front-loaded and the annual payout is $6M, $5.5M, $5.3M, $5.1M and $4.7M. He also landed a no-movement clause in the final three years despite never scoring more than 21 goals or amassing 51 points.
Niederreiter’s five-year, $26.2M extension pays out $4.6M, 6 M, 5.8M, $4.2M and $5.4M annually. He has played six NHL seasons and strung together 25-, 20- and 24-goal efforts the last three seasons, but didn’t get a no-trade clause.
One concern for the Canucks could be if Horvat doesn’t pan out and they have little leverage in a six-year commitment. They could want a modified no-trade clause in the final two years to have some clawback, much like they have with Brandon Sutter. His no-trade clause has two more years and then a modified NTC kicks in and the centre can submit a list of 15 teams he can’t be traded to.
Horvat would be in his prime when a six-year deal expires, so there will be another one on the table and in a perfect world that would keep him here to play out his entire career.
Pettersson injury update
Canucks prospect Elias Pettersson, who aggravated a lower-body muscle strain Saturday at the World Junior Summer Showcase in Plymouth, Mich., was on a line Wednesday with Lias Andersson (Rangers) and Fredrik Karlstrom (Stars). He had an assist as Sweden lost 3-2 to the United States.
“We looked into his injuries last year and that (strain) never came up,” Benning said of the club’s fifth-overall pick in June.
“This one could be that because he’s just starting to skate again and getting right into competition, so he may have strained a muscle. But I haven’t heard that it’s serious.”
Finland is a Juolevi option
Olli Juolevi is not representing Finland in the tournament because he’s training at home. Benning said if the defenceman doesn’t crack the Canucks’ roster this fall, the fifth-overall pick in 2016 could be loaned to Turku in the Finnish elite league where Sami Salo serves as an assistant. He’s also an assistant for the country’s world junior team.
“Playing back in Finland is one of the options, but his mindset is to try to make our team,” added Benning.
“And one of the reasons we brought Sami in as a guest coach at our development camp was to start developing a relationship with Olli and start working with him. But we’ll have to see where Olli is at during our camp and go from there.”
“We want to figure something out that is fair to him and fair to the team.”
— Jim Benning