Can PM create an upset?
Prime minister visits riding to add his ‘rock star’ glow to local candidate’s campaign
Gordon Hogg and the Liberals hope to ride the momentum from Justin Trudeau’s recent appearance to an upset victory over the Tories in South Surrey-White Rock byelection.
secrets Victoria’s
Gordon Hogg has seen a lot of pretty intense politics as a city councillor, mayor, an MLA and a provincial cabinet minister — but there’s really nothing quite like campaigning with Justin Trudeau.
“He’s a rock star,” marvelled Hogg, who retired from provincial politics in the spring, only to be lured to run for Trudeau’s federal Liberals in a looming byelection.
Hogg is running in South Surrey-White Rock, the federal seat vacated by former Conservative MP Dianne Watts, who quit to seek the provincial Liberal leadership.
The riding has been a solid Conservative seat in the past, though Watts won it by a surprisingly narrow margin two years ago as a wave of Trudeaumania washed over B.C.
Now Trudeau’s Liberals have high hopes of stealing the seat from the Tories in the Dec. 11 byelection, optimism evident during Trudeau’s campaign swing through the riding last week.
“It was incredible,” Hogg gushed. “We didn’t really promote it heavily, and to have over 1,000 people show up was amazing. He picked up every baby. He was getting high-fived by all the kids. It was very high energy.”
Then Hogg adds a conspicuous plug for the pair of local coffee shops where Trudeau pressed the flesh: “It was an incredibly positive event for two small businesses: Laura’s Coffee Corner and The Five Corners Cafe. They were overjoyed.”
I’m sure they were, though I think there’s a reason Hogg mentions Trudeau giving a boost to small business.
It’s because his finance minister, Bill Morneau, spent most of the summer threatening Canadian small businesses with a range of punitive new tax rules.
And even though Morneau has now cooled his rhetoric — and the Liberals instead want to talk about cutting small-business taxes now — a lot of damage was done.
It’s given the Conservatives an opening against Trudeau’s pizzazz.
“Small businesses are not tax cheats, they’re the backbone of the economy,” said Kerry-Lynne Findlay, the Conservative byelection candidate.
“I’m hearing that a lot on the doorsteps,” she said. “Yet the finance minister seems to be able to use loopholes himself. It’s so unfair.”
She’s talking about the controversy swirling around Morneau’s personal family fortune, which forced him to place his assets in a blind trust last month.
Then there was the now-nixed plan to tax employee discounts, and the clawback of a long-standing disability tax credit for people with Type 1 diabetes.
“The Canada Revenue Agency shouldn’t be focused on people’s insulin schedules, or the discounts fast-food workers get on a hamburger,” said Findlay, who was minister of national revenue in the former Conservative government.
Hogg, the Liberal candidate, admits the Liberals are vulnerable on recent tax bungles.
“But there’s a lot of misinformation out there, and as we’re able to clarify that, it makes a big difference,” he said.
Hogg is a great candidate for the Liberals in a riding where they always seem to finish second. He was a White Rock city councillor, mayor for a decade, an MLA for five terms, a foster parent, little-league coach and a board member of 15 local non-profits and charities.
That’s why the Conservatives have sent in their big guns, too: The new federal Conservative leader, Andrew Scheer, campaigned in the riding last week as well.
“The Liberal candidate may be a very nice guy, but he has decided to endorse an economic program that makes life harder for working Canadians,” Scheer said in an interview. “The Liberals seem to wake up every morning looking for new ways to raise taxes.”
Scheer, a long-serving Saskatchewan MP and former Speaker of the House of Commons, won the Conservative leadership last May in an upset.
Little-known to most Canadians, I asked him if has a charisma deficit matched up against Trudeau. (Not to mention Jagmeet Singh, the flashy new leader of the federal NDP.)
“Justin Trudeau’s image team has done a great job pushing the celebrity-type image,” he said. “But his policies are hurting people. I’m asking voters here to help me keep his Ottawa Liberals honest.”
The federal NDP has little to no chance of winning the byelection, though Scheer took a crack at Singh anyway.
“He’s an impressive person, but his policies would be very dangerous for Canada,” Scheer said. “They would lead to government getting bigger and bigger and taxes getting higher and higher.”
He circles back to taxes frequently, attacking the Liberals fiercely for raising them and promising a Conservative government would cut them.
But Scheer himself seems to realize Trudeau’s still-potent charm, combined with Hogg’s local appeal, could result in the Conservatives losing a “safe” seat.
“Obviously I want to win every byelection and keep every seat we’ve held,” Scheer said. “But I’m also very realistic that this is going to be a tough fight.”
Trudeau, Hogg and the Liberals, meanwhile, think they can snatch one away from the Tories.
“Many of you know Gordie — he’s a household name in these parts,” Trudeau told the crowds last week, noting the Liberals won a record 17 seats in B.C. two years ago.
“We can break our own record,” Trudeau said. “Let’s make it 18.”
Hogg might do just that. But it will be close.