CARVING OUT IDENTITY IS PURE GRAVY
We know it’s early, but the Canucks are in playoff contention as American Thanksgiving is marked
If memory serves, Detroit Red Wings’ GM Ken Holland was the first man to identify American Thanksgiving as a watershed moment in the life of an NHL season.
The Holland Theorem, which has since morphed into The Thanksgiving Day Playoff Principle, asserted that teams have played one-quarter of their schedule by the end of November and, therefore, have a good idea of where they stand.
Some accountants then took Mr. Holland’s opus one step farther and calculated that, since the salary cap era began in 2005-06, a full 78.4 per cent of the teams that occupied playoff spots on American Thanksgiving went on to the post-season.
The Vancouver Canucks, just so you know, currently occupy the first wild-card spot in the Western Conference and were percentage points behind third-place Calgary in the Pacific Division. This can only mean one thing — as I’ve said for many years, the parade must run down Georgia Street.
Let’s move beyond the question of the Canucks’ playoff viability because Chicago, Minnesota and Anaheim still sit below the playoff bar. A lot of things can happen between now and April 7.
Instead, let’s examine the team that has brought us to this titillating place, what we like about it and what scares the bejesus out of us.
What We Like The Boeser Effect
Hate to be Debbie Downer here, but these Canucks aren’t the offensive juggernaut of popular imagination. They’re averaging 2.78 goals a game which, in the West, is ahead of only Sa n Jose, Edmonton and Arizona.
The difference is, in the past two seasons, scoring goals for this team was harder than solving pi. Last season they averaged 2.2 per game. The year before that 2.3.
Does half a goal per game mean that much? In a word, yes. The mere fact that it no longer takes a convergence of the planets for the Canucks to score a goal has taken so much pressure off this team. They have a bona fide sniper in Brock Boeser. They have a first line that drives the play. In Thomas Vanek they have an individual who produces offence on his own. And the Sedins haven’t fallen off the grid just yet.
I mean, and brace yourself for this, the Canucks even have the makings of a power play — they sit 15th in the NHL after going 7-for-15 over their last five games.
Newell Brown, your lifetime achievement award awaits.
But the story here is the impact this production has had on the Canucks. Maybe it’s a chicken and egg argument — are they playing freer because they’re scoring more goals, or are they scoring more goals because they’re playing freer?
Whatever the case the end result is the same. They play fast. There’s a purpose to their game. And, finally, there’s a bottom line.
The-coach-of-the-quarter year
OK, Jon Cooper in Tampa or Gerard Gallant in Vegas might be more deserving at this stage, but Travis Green has created something in this team that, try as he might, Willie Desjardins could never find.
There is a clear identity and philosophy. The 12 forwards, six D and both goalies are all vital cogs in the machine and all are contributing.
Aside from Boeser, there isn’t one Canuck producing at an unexpected level this season but, somehow, the whole has been greater than the sum of the parts. Credit Green for that.
Deep thoughts
The Canucks have been without Chris Tanev, maybe their most indispensable player, for the last seven games, regular blue-liner Troy Stecher for 14 games and now Derek Dorsett may be out for a significant stretch.
The point is injuries killed this team the last two seasons. This year they have the organizational depth to withstand them. It’s unclear what the contributions of Michael Del Zotto and Anders Nilsson (one year left on their contracts) and Derrick Pouliot and Thomas Vanek (both up at the end of this season) will be in ensuing years but they’ve been key figures this season.
Yes, but ... Now, here’s reality calling. We’ve seen this movie before.
Last season, the Canucks were two games over .500 on Jan. 6 and in the thick of the playoff race before they fell into a void. They year before they were two games over .500 on Jan. 17. The Torts’ tire-fire season, you ask? They were 23-11-6 on Dec. 29 before they lost their minds.
Given that track record, it can fairly be asked if their current pace is sustainable? Can they continue to hold off Anaheim, Chicago and Minnesota in the West?
Wrapped in those questions is another question. Will their goaltending hold up? The combined save percentage for Nilsson and Jacob Markstrom right now is .919, solid but not off the charts. Their .936 even-strength save percentage (second in the league) is, however, and that coupled with their minus-57 team Corsi is cause for concern.
It’s that ability to defend while keeping the goals-against at a manageable level that is the key to the Canucks’ season. We’ve seen the blue-line disintegrate in each of the past two seasons, taking the goaltending with them and sending the team into a flaming death spiral over the second half.
We’ve seen the offence dry up. We’ve seen the standings, 29th and 28th overall. Remember?
With those nightmares still lodged in the collective conscience of their fan base, it’s difficult to embrace this team unconditionally. But enough good things have happened to create some hope that the worst is over.
Be thankful for that.