Golden Globes guessing game
The only things you can safely predict are overwrought speeches and drunkenness
On television 75th Golden Globe Awards Sunday, CTV/NBC
Ready for the Golden Globes? The televised awards ceremony is the cash cow of the secretive Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA), that crowd of sometimes-journalists famed for slavering sycophancy.
Once described by Gary Oldman as, “90 nobodies having a wank,” the HFPA is small but powerful, thanks to television. A Golden Globe may still be a bit of a joke, but it’s an accepted part of the prize season and a big influence on Oscar voting.
When a big prize involves a tiny voting pool, people can be swayed. Tales abound of past HFPA incidents involving bribes, influence peddling and prize-fixing, but never mind.
You need to know this because some of the Golden Globe Awards make absolutely no sense. It’s all a popularity contest.
This year, many celebrities will be wearing black on the red carpet. This is a show of solidarity in the protest against sexual harassment in Hollywood.
You can predict drunken hijinks and rambling speeches at the Golden Globes, but it’s never easy to predict a winner. Here goes, though:
Drama
Call Me By Your Name Dunkirk The Post The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Three Billboards should win, but Call Me By Your Name is considered more socially relevant, and The Post could win, because — you know — Steven Spielberg and that giant cast. Gosh.
Comedy Or Musical
The Disaster Artist Get Out The Greatest Showman I, Tonya Lady Bird
Get Out should win, or maybe Lady Bird. The Greatest Showman has had terrible reviews, so it’s a mystery that it’s nominated, but at least it has singing. None of these movies is actually a comedy, is it?
Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Martin McDonagh should win, but we’re not sure the HFPA can resist giving Steven Spielberg a prize. Pundits, meanwhile, claim Christopher Nolan will win. There you go.
Actress In A Drama
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Meryl Streep, The Post Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Another tough one! The voters love Streep, but experts believe Sally Hawkins will win. But Frances McDormand should win this, and perhaps even will, because it’s her turn.
Actor In A Drama
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread Tom Hanks, The Post Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
The prize should go to Daniel Day-Lewis, but that’s unlikely. Tom Hanks is a longtime favourite, so he’s an outside possibility; Gary Oldman may win, wanker comment notwithstanding, because Darkest Hour is just the sort of showy, historical epic that’s always getting awards. Timothée Chalamet is the actor many hope will win. Coin toss, people.
Actress In A Comedy Or Musical
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker Margot Robbie, I, Tonya Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Saoirse Ronan should win, but maybe Helen Mirren will win just so all her buddies in the HFPA can get selfies!!! It’s so exciting.
Actor In A Comedy Or Musical
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Impossible to know. Daniel Kaluuya should win, or maybe Ansel Elgort, but who doesn’t love Hugh Jackman or Steve Carell? Much more fun to have one of those two on the show.
Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound Hong Chau, Downsizing Allison Janney, I, Tonya Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Either Laurie Metcalfe or Allison Janney should win this, but Janney is a bigger feather in the HFPA’s cap.
Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
At 88, Christopher Plummer is closest in age to many HFPA members, so he may get the popular vote. Still, there’s no reason Armie Hammer can’t pull off a surprise win, given the beauty of Call Me By Your Name. Straight actors playing characters in gay relationships are always considered brave in Hollywood, too.