BROCK BOESER: Canucks’ rookie faces tough competition for Calder Trophy
Call it the Calder conundrum: Canucks’ sniper, Islanders’ wizard are neck and neck in the race for top NHL rookie honours. And right behind them is a case for the defence
So you think Brock Boeser can win the Calder Trophy.
It won’t be easy, even if he’s in the midst of one of the greatest rookie seasons in franchise history.
Boeser finds himself chilling during the team’s bye week with 22 goals. He’s 22-18-40 in 42 games. Right now, 30 goals seems not only attainable, but probable. And, as rookies go, this is rarefied air.
Including the two players who did it last year, only 12 rookies have scored 30 in a season since 1996. Just five of them, however, have won the Calder Trophy, bestowed upon the NHL’s rookie of the year.
Since the last time a Canuck won it — Pavel Bure in 1991-92 — the award has mostly been a points competition. Sixteen forwards have won the Calder since Bure, and only once did the winner not at least have a share of the lead in rookie points. That was Chris Drury, way back in 1998-99.
Essentially, more points means more votes.
That’s threatening to be a massive roadblock for Boeser’s chances, because Mathew Barzal has been a points machine with the New York Islanders (16-31-47 in 46 games heading into Thursday night’s action) and he’s on one of the highest scoring teams in the NHL. He’s played more games, is averaging more ice time, and is cradled on a team loaded with players who can create offensive fireworks.
Boeser’s team, meanwhile, has scored the fewest goals in the NHL since 2015, and is again near the bottom of the league in goals-per-game.
It should make what Boeser’s doing even more special, but I doubt the voters will see it that way.
This is especially problematic for things like secondary assists. Before Thursday’s game between the host Islanders and visiting Boston, Barzal had 15 of them and Boeser nine. That’s a six-point difference and Barzal had a seven-point lead in points heading into Thursday’s play.
But things change, sometimes in a hurry. Remember when Clayton Keller was everyone’s Calder favourite?
Here we look at the leading candidates:
Brock Boeser, forward, Vancouver Canucks
The case for: He’s been among the league leaders in goals-scoredper-hour all season, ranking third on Thursday. When centre Bo Horvat was injured, Boeser actually got more effective, just as many were counting him out. He went on a run of eight goals in 10 games. From Nov. 15 to Jan. 18, he scored 17 goals, good enough for a share of the league lead. Most importantly, he’s done all of this on a mediocre team that’s been ravaged by injuries, and one that ranks 26th in offence.
The skinny: If Boeser gets to 35 goals for the Canucks, it’s going to be tough not to vote for him.
Mathew Barzal, forward, New York Islanders
The case for: For one, he’s electric. The Coquitlam native’s highlights are among the best in hockey. Talk all you want about his supporting cast, but Barzal makes the players around him better. He’s already had two five-point games and, with the way the Islanders play, no one would be surprised if he repeats. His 47 points in his first 46 games led all rookies, and he’s been among the league leaders in even strength points-per-hour. In short, he’s been great, and given his situation, there’s no reason to think he can’t keep it up.
The skinny: The way it’s going, Barzal could lead rookies in points by 15 or more. If that happens, he’s going to win.
Charlie McAvoy, defence, Boston Bruins
The case for: Boeser and Barzal have been getting all the hype, but don’t sleep on McAvoy. He’s playing nearly 24 minutes a game on Boston’s top defensive pairing and he’s made his partner, Zdeno Chara, a more effective player. McAvoy was 11th among defencemen in even strength shot attempt differential (54.93 per cent).
The skinny: As the season goes on, you can expect more people using underlying data to build a case for McAvoy. Boeser and Barzal could split traditional voters, while McAvoy gets some new media love.
Mikhail Sergachev, defence, Tampa Bay Lightning
The case for: The way it looks right now, Sergachev and McAvoy are the front-runners for the third Calder finalist spot, behind Boeser and Barzal. Sergachev leads all rookie defencemen with eight goals to go along with his 26 points. Most impressively, he’s doing it while averaging fewer than 16 minutes a game in ice time.
The skinny: No rookie defenceman has hit 50 points in a season since 1993. Sergachev has a shot at it, especially if his ice time increases in the second half of the season.