Getting hot at just the right time
Expect Columbus, San Jose and Nashville to make some noise in this year’s playoffs
WASHINGTON — The NHL’s regular season is winding down and the notable Stanley Cup contenders — Tampa Bay Lightning, Vegas Golden Knights and the two-time defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins — are going to be in the spotlight.
However, there are a few other playoff teams that are coming into the post-season firing on all cylinders. And those are the teams no one should want to face come playoff time.
The Columbus Blue Jackets had won 10 straight games heading into Saturday’s night game against the St. Louis Blues — the second-longest winning streak in franchise history, set last season (16 games). Since the trade deadline, when they acquired forwards Thomas Vanek and Mark Letestu in addition to defenceman Ian Cole, the Jackets are a league-leading 11-2-0 (22 points), outscoring opponents 34-22 at even strength. Their overall goal differential in that span is also a league-high (plus-20).
Getting hot late in the season — especially over the last 20 games — is a good sign for post-season success. Since 2006 — omitting the shortened 2012-13 season — the eventual Cup winner has ranked in the top 10 for goal differential in that span eight out of the last 11 years. One other, the 2010-11 Boston Bruins, ranked 11th. Eight of the last 11 teams facing off against them in the Stanley Cup finals also ranked in the Top 10.
Out west, the San Jose Sharks are also rolling. They have won seven straight games, are 8-2-0 in their last 10 games and have the second-highest goal-scoring rate since March (3.9 goals per 60 minutes). Only the Blue Jackets have been better at putting pucks in the net (4.0) this calendar month. The Sharks are also generating quality chances, generating six out of every 10 high-danger chances in their games since March 1. High-danger chances are those in the slot or crease.
And don’t forget about last year’s runner-up, the Nashville Predators. Their plus-15 goal differential ranks fifth since the trade deadline and they feature one of the best forward trios in the NHL this season — and it isn’t the one featuring Viktor Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg.
The second line of Kevin Fiala, Kyle Turris and Craig Smith has put 60 per cent of even-strength scoring chances in their favour in 2017-18, while outscoring opponents 26-11. After adjusting for shot quality, they have an expected goal differential of plus-10.7, the highest among forward lines playing at least 400 minutes together at even strength this season. The Vegas line featuring Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith and William Karlsson ranks second with an expected goal differential of plus-8.4. That helps boost the Predators’ chances of not only reaching the Cup final for the second year in a row, it also makes them one of the favourites to win it all. According to the average projections from Money Puck, Sports Club Stats and Hockey Reference, Nashville has a 12-per cent chance of hoisting the Stanley Cup in 2018, second only to the Lightning (15 per cent).