Should Mariners fans be optimistic?
Three reasons Seattle could have success — and three reasons they may miss playoffs again
Here’s three reasons Mariners fans should be optimistic about the 2018 campaign:
1. Potent Lineup
The Mariners should score runs. The first five hitters in their projected everyday lineup — Dee Gordon, Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager — are previous all-stars with career resumes that reflect their success and paycheques.
But what could make the lineup particularly potent are the hitters after the first five. Seattle will use Ryon Healy, Mitch Haniger and Mike Zunino in the No. 6, 7, 8 spots in some order. Healy and Zunino have legitimate power, each hitting 25 homers last season. Meanwhile, Haniger had a good first 20 games and final 29 games last season.
2. Paxton power
James Paxton has done everything to be healthy for 2018 and become the type of dominant starter he was for extended periods last season.
Armed with a mid- to high-90 m.p.h. fastball, a nasty curveball and cutter and an improved change-up, he has all the tools to be one of the best starting pitchers in the AL.
He was 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA in 24 starts last season. He struck out 156 in 136 innings and had career marks in wins, starts, innings, strikeouts and ERA. But that success was interrupted by two stints on the disabled list because of a forearm strain and later a pectoral strain.
If he gives Seattle 30 starts, it would take some pressure off the rest of the staff.
3. Pleasant surprises
Realistically, the Mariners need more than a few surprising contributions or performances that exceed expectations.
If a starter like Marco Gonzales can put together a strong season or if hard-throwing reliever Dan Altavilla can harness his stuff and be a reliable setup man, the Mariners could have a different outlook.
After two seasons of dealing with injuries, it would be a pleasant surprise if Felix Hernandez could make 28 to 30 starts and display a level of consistency with his command.
And here’s three reasons they shouldn’t be so hopeful:
1. Injuries
Every team deals with them, but in the past few seasons and even this spring, it seems as if the Mariners have had to deal with them more than the rest.
The Mariners’ bullpen, which the front office and coaching staff considered to be a strength, was dealt a body blow when David Phelps suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow, ending his season before it started.
Seattle will be without outfielder Ben Gamel (oblique strain) for the first month of the season, and No. 5 starter Erasmo Ramirez (lat strain) won’t make his first scheduled start.
Ichiro Suzuki at age 44, Cruz at 37 and Cano at 35 are injury risks, and Hernandez and Paxton have also dealt with injury issues.
2. The competition
The American League West features the defending World Series champion Houston Astros, a team the Mariners have a 39-55 record against over the last five seasons. Houston returns the bulk of its team.
The Angels should be improved, adding second baseman Ian Kinsler and third baseman Zack Cozart, and retaining outfielder Justin Upton to go with all-everything centre-fielder Mike Trout. The Angels’ pitching is a question mark, even with the addition of Shohei Ohtani. Still, many insiders feel they are better than the Mariners.
The American League also could be dominated by four “super” teams — the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Cleveland. And it’s possible the second-wild card team could need to win closer to 88 to 90 games. Does Seattle seem like an 88-win team?
3. Just because
Maybe it’s bad luck or the curse of the upside down trident.
Maybe it’s the baseball gods punishing them for past sins like the Erik Bedard trade and the Heathcliff Slocumb trade.
Maybe it should be expected. For any number of reasons discussed, the Mariners have not made the post-season since 2001. Breaking that trend isn’t simple. It gets into the heads of fans and coaches and players.