MIKE SMYTH: Pipeline stakes high for PM and premiers
Expect PM to offer better spill protection to B.C., taxpayers’ money to Kinder Morgan
It’s impossible to say for certain whether todays’ summit meeting on the future of the Kinder Morgan pipeline will achieve anything.
One thing is for sure though: Justin Trudeau has cranked up the drama for his showdown in Ottawa with B.C. Premier John Horgan and Alberta counterpart Rachel Notley.
By cutting short his latest foreign trip — and summoning Horgan and Notley to Parliament Hill for pipeline peace talks — Trudeau has created a heightened sense of urgency.
Just like his late father — former prime minister Pierre Trudeau — Justin Trudeau has demonstrated a flair for the dramatic.
With the stage set, will Trudeau take another leaf from his father’s book and lay down the law for his two squabbling premiers?
Back in 1970, Canada was in the grips of the October Crisis, when radical Quebec separatists kidnapped a provincial cabinet minister and a British diplomat. In response, Pierre Trudeau invoked the War Measures Act.
Asked by a reporter how far he was willing to go in suspending civil liberties, Trudeau famously replied: “Just watch me.”
Will we now have a “just watch me” moment from the younger Trudeau — how far is he willing to go to expand a pipeline opposed by British Columbia?
Trudeau’s government has already approved the $7.4-billion pipeline expansion project that would pump more heavy bitumen from Alberta’s oilsands to a terminal in Burnaby for shipment by ocean tanker to Asia.
Alberta desperately wants the pipeline to get its oil to Asian markets and the higher prices on offer there.
But British Columbia opposes the pipeline expansion on environmental grounds, arguing a major marine oil spill could devastate the coastline and the economy.
That’s why some insiders expect Trudeau to attempt to reassure Horgan by possibly offering to increase spill prevention and response capacity on the B.C. coast.
The Trudeau government has already outlined a $1.5-billion Oceans Protection Plan that would include more tugboats, radar stations and Coast Guard resources.
The problem is, Horgan is not expected to budge from his opposition to the pipeline, no matter how much additional money Trudeau offers to spend on environmental protection.
Trudeau has other cards in his hand. He could make it clear to Horgan that the pipeline is going to get built and Ottawa is willing to put money into the project to make sure it does.
The latest crisis was sparked when Kinder Morgan announced it was suspending non-essential construction of the pipeline because of B.C.’s opposition. The company set a May 31 deadline to resolve the impasse.
Trudeau might tell Horgan the federal government will indemnify the company against financial losses on the project due to delays caused by B.C.
If Trudeau wants to play really rough, he could threaten to cut off transfer payments to British Columbia, or invoke the federal Emergencies Act to force the pipeline through over Horgan’s objections.
If Trudeau does something that bold, he would have his “just watch me” moment. But he could also trigger an even angrier backlash in British Columbia.
The federal Liberals must be worried about losing key seats in Metro Vancouver in the next election if Trudeau pushes too hard on the pipeline.
But Trudeau also has to think about Canada’s global reputation as a place to invest and do business. If he wimps out in the pipeline fight, other big projects could die before they even get started.
Meanwhile, there’s no way Notley will back down in her battle to get the pipeline built. She has little choice in the matter.
Alberta faces an election next year and Jason Kenney’s United Conservative Party is leading the polls over Notley’s governing NDP.
Notley is probably going to lose the election no matter what happens. But if she weakens in the pipeline fight, she can wave goodbye to any chance of remaining in power.
That’s why Notley will raise the stakes even higher on Monday when her government introduces a bill that could cut off oil, gas and fuel shipments to British Columbia, potentially driving up the price of gasoline in B.C.
Where does all this leave Horgan? Backed into a corner as Trudeau and Notley apply the pressure. But don’t expect the B.C. premier to back down, either.
Horgan has said B.C. will continue to pursue legal actions against the pipeline, including asking the courts to rule whether B.C. has the power to block Alberta’s bitumen shipments.
Trudeau may counter that by presenting Horgan with legal opinions showing the pipeline is clearly within exclusive federal jurisdiction and Horgan simply has no power to stop it. But Horgan still won’t budge.
The likeliest outcome would be Trudeau putting up taxpayers’ money to keep Kinder Morgan in the game, while strengthening environmental protections against a spill.
That might be enough to persuade Kinder Morgan to resume building, while giving Horgan something to show for his wounds in a losing battle.
As for that “just watch me” moment, that could come later, if large numbers of protesters risk arrest to block pipeline construction. Trudeau will then face the biggest test of his resolve.