U.S.-led strikes in Syria show no sign of threatening Assad’s hold on power
U.S.-led strikes against Syrian chemical weapons facilities prompted defiant celebrations in Damascus on Saturday as it became clear that the limited attack posed no threat to President Bashar Assad’s hold on power and would likely have no impact on the trajectory of the Syrian war.
Fears of a wider escalation faded after it emerged that the locations targeted by the United States, Britain and France had been confined to three sites associated with the Syrian chemical weapons program, had caused no serious casualties and had probably not destroyed Syria’s capacity to develop and deploy banned chemical substances.
There were expressions of anger from Syria’s allies, with Russia labelling the attack an “act of aggression,” Iran calling it “a war crime” and Syria describing it as “barbarous.” President Trump called the attacks an “enormous success,” tweeting that they represented a “Mission Accomplished.”
But on the streets of Damascus, there was jubilation. Residents gathered in central squares and danced to patriotic songs, waving Syrian flags alongside those of Russia and Iran, Syria’s allies in the fight against the anti-Assad rebellion.
“The honourable cannot be humiliated,” said a tweet by the Twitter account maintained by Assad’s office shortly after the attack. A few hours later, the account tweeted a video of him walking nonchalantly to work through the halls of the Syrian presidential palace.
Though the strikes appeared to have satisfied the conflicting agendas of the world powers competing for influence in Syria, they won’t make any difference to the war on the ground — which Assad is steadily winning, said Amr al-Azm, a professor of history at Shawnee University in Ohio.
“This was more about the Western allies making sure their red lines were addressed rather than trying to seriously damage the Assad regime, prevent the further killing of civilians or reduce the capacity of the Assad regime to keep fighting,” he said.
“From Assad’s perspective, this was a big win. He must be thinking, this is good, I came out on top, I gained much more than I lost.”
It was unclear even whether there would be a long-term impact on Syria’s capacity to develop and use chemical weapons. Trump had telegraphed for days the likely response of the United States to the alleged chemical attack that killed civilians in a rebel stronghold last Saturday, giving the Syrian authorities and their Iranian and Russian allies time to vacate the facilities that were targeted — and perhaps also to remove vital equipment and stores.
Russia said that the damage had been minimal, and that most of the more than 100 missiles fired were intercepted. According to the Syrian army command, three civilians were injured, in the vicinity of one of the strikes against Homs.
“It remains to be seen whether the allied attack fulfilled all its intended goals,” said Karl Dewey of Jane’s by I.H.S. Markit defence consultancy.
This was the second strike against Syria in a little over a year, in response to the second alleged use by the government of a poison gas against its citizens. Last April, the United States bombed the Shayrat airbase in the province of Homs in retaliation for a sarin gas attack that killed around 70 people in the northern town of Khan Sheikhoun.
This time, videos emerged of men, women and children slumped dead, with foam on their mouths, after a bomb containing toxic gas allegedly was dropped in a residential neighbourhood of the rebel-held town of Douma in the eastern suburbs of Damascus.
“From Assad’s perspective, this was a big win.” — AMR AL-AZM PROFESSOR OF HISTORY, SHAWNEE UNIVERSITY