GROUP D PREVIEW
Argentina
QUALIFIED: Finished third in CONMEBOL qualifying behind Brazil, Uruguay
FIFA WORLD RANKING: No. 5 BEST FINISH: Champions (1978, ’86) MANAGER: Jorge Sampaoli. Led Chile at the 2014 World Cup before moving to Sevilla. Argentina called last year.
BEST PLAYER: Lionel Messi. The best player in the world is haunted by the fact he’s never lifted an international trophy with Argentina’s senior team — something that has seen him remain in Diego Maradona’s shadow despite winning everything there is to win at club level. You can watch a highlight reel of Messi’s top 100 goals and be equally astonished by every one of them. Yet Barcelona’s best player is constantly surrounded by Spanish teammates who have won UEFA European Championships and World Cups. Despite guiding his country to the brink of a World Cup win four years ago in Brazil, Messi’s international trophy case remains empty. How will history remember the world’s best player if Argentina fails to win a Copa America or World Cup during his tenure? OUTLOOK: Argentina wasn’t exactly convincing during CONMEBOL qualifying, winning just seven of 18 games to narrowly finish third in South America. A recent blowout (6-1) loss to Spain — albeit without Lionel Messi involved — did little to calm fears Argentina’s current crop can’t compete with the world’s heavyweights. La Albiceleste bizarrely scored just 19 times during World Cup qualifying — as many as last-place Venezuela. With names like Gonzalo Higuain (Juventus), Sergio Aguero (Manchester City) and Paulo Dybala (Juventus) up front, you have to believe scoring won’t be an issue in Russia. The fact Argentina conceded less than a goal-per-game during qualifying bodes well given for a side that’s going to create chances.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO: World Cup champion WORST-CASE SCENARIO: A group stage exit isn’t an impossibility LARSON’S PREDICTION: Argentina stumbles during the group stage, setting up a costly second-round meeting with France.
Iceland
QUALIFIED: Topped UEFA Group I qualifying, finishing ahead of Croatia, Ukraine, Turkey FIFA WORLD RANKING: No. 22
BEST FINISH: First World Cup appearance MANAGER: Heimir Hallgrimsson. The Icelandic manager was an assistant under Lars Lagerback during the 2016 European Championship.
BEST PLAYER: Gylfi Sigurdsson. The Icelandic midfielder is a mirror image of Denmark’s Christian Eriksen. He’s long, technically gifted and a game-changer at the international level. The 28-year-old Everton midfielder is something of a utility man — a box-to-box midfielder who covers a ton of ground and still consistently finds ways to make an impact in the final third. Sigurdsson is a threat from distance during the run play or in dead-ball situations. Iceland will need its top player to be a top player at this tournament if it is to survive a complicated Group of Death.
OUTLOOK: Credit Iceland for getting back to a major tournament after surprising at the 2016 European Championship. It’s hard to argue with what the Nordic nation has accomplished the past four years. They’ve knocked off sides like the Netherlands, England, Croatia, Ukraine and Turkey during impressive runs in UEFA competitions. So forgive me for not showing as much love as everyone else. What nobody wants to talk about, though, is how fortunate Iceland was to accomplish what they did two years ago. They were beyond fortunate to draw Portugal. They probably should have lost to Austria in a match that was exceedingly one-sided. But strange things happen in football, and a stunning defeat of England boosted Iceland’s profile more than it needed. But here we are, again, waiting to see if lowly Iceland can go on another run. I predict they won’t. That said, I also predicted they wouldn’t be here.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Round of 16. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Iceland could lose all three games in Group D. LARSON’S PREDICTION: Iceland gets a reality check.
Croatia
QUALIFIED: Defeated Greece 4-1 on aggregate in a UEFA playoff
FIFA WORLD RANKING: No. 18
BEST FINISH: 3rd place (1998)
MANAGER: Zlatko Dalic. The 51-year-old has been managing since 2005. His resume includes stops at Croatia U21, Al-Faisaly, Al-Hilal, and Al-Ain.
BEST PLAYER: Luka Modric. Most casual fans know of Modric. What they don’t know, though, is much about a player who’s overshadowed by far bigger stars at Real Madrid. The 32-year-old midfielder doesn’t have the vision of Spain’s Andres Iniesta, or the dribbling and scoring abilities of Argentina’s Lionel Messi. But he’s the perfect midfielder connecter for a club and country that’s spoiled with attacking pieces. Modric knows his role and performs it well. He isn’t going to win any Golden Boots or Golden Balls. He’s likely not going to do anything exceedingly special. But those knowledgeable about the game understand balanced sides need a steady No. 8 to cover distance and play provider. Modric is one of the best in the world at what he does. OUTLOOK: A side stacked with talent continues to come up short at major tournaments. Croatia hasn’t advanced from the group stage at a FIFA World Cup since finishing third in 1998. Hopes of a deep run at the 2016 European Championship were dashed by Portugal in extra time. Now is the time for a golden generation of players who have disappointed at back-to-back international tournaments. Juventus striker Mario Mandzukic, 32, and Internazionale forward Ivan Perisic, 29, could be featuring in their final World Cups in front of a midfield that boasts players from both of Spain’s top clubs: Modric and Mateo Kovacic at Real Madrid and Ivan Rakitic at Barcelona. Both Modric, 32, and Rakitic, 30, head to Russia at the peak of their careers, looking to meet expectations that always seem a little out of reach. The Croatians have more than enough quality to win Group D. They’ll also fancy their chances at getting payback against Iceland, a side that forced them into a UEFA playoff. Croatia’s pre-tourney schedule included tests against Mexico and Brazil, so they’ll be prepared for the Group of Death. They have too much experience to come up short. BEST CASE SCENARIO: Semifinals
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A third straight loss to Iceland that sees Croatia come up short — again LARSON’S PREDICTION: Quarterfinals tenacious
Nigeria
QUALIFIED: Finished top of CAF’s Group B qualifying, ahead of Zambia, Cameroon, and Algeria FIFA WORLD RANKING: No. 47
BETS FINISH: Round of 16 (1994, ’98, and 2014) MANAGER: Gernot Rohr. The former Bayern Munich defender has been managing The Super Eagles since 2016 after stints with the Gabon, Niger, and Burkina Faso national teams.
BEST PLAYER: Victor Moses. Perhaps the best winger in the Group of Death, Moses is one of the most powerful wide players in the Premier League. The 27-year-old started 38 games for Chelsea last season, chipping in four goals and four assists in all competitions. The Nigerian dominates wide positions with his power and pace. His eagerness to break out on the counter poses a threat to opposing sides that pour numbers forward. When players are fatigued in late stages, Moses always seems to be the one darting to the back post to get on the end of a cross or finish a play. He’s an all-around footballer, a winger whose numbers don’t do him justice. OUTLOOK: The Super Eagles survived a World Cup qualifying group with underrated Zambia and perennial World Cup qualifiers in Cameroon and Algeria, a side that ventured into the Round of 16 in Brazil. It’s unfortunate the one of the best sides in CAF was placed alongside two of the top 10 teams in this tournament. For Nigeria, there doesn’t seem to be a path to the second round — especially when you consider there’s a huge question mark at the back. Goalkeeper Francis Uzoho, 19, appeared just twice for his club team, Deportivo de la Coruna, last season but has seen the majority of repetitions in the run-up to this summer’s World Cup. How will a player with just six international caps cope with the magnitude of playing on the biggest stage? Uzoho, and Nigeria, didn’t look good in a pre-World Cup tuneup loss to England. In his 12th year of international soccer, Super Eagles captain John Obi Mikel is the steady head in a midfield. If the 31-yearold can keep Nigeria together and organized, it stands a chance of advancing for a second straight World Cup. That said, Nigeria has been decidedly poor in the run-up to Russia 2018.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Round of 16 WORST CASE SCENARIO: Could finish last in Group D LARSON’S PREDICTION: Third place in Group D — Previews by Kurtis Larson