WILL THEY STAY OR WILL THEY GO?
NDP MLA Leonard Krog may run for Nanaimo mayor, triggering a byelection that could topple the government. And Liberal Rich Coleman may run for Surrey mayor.
It’s a game of political musical chairs that has Victoria insiders abuzz, as they nervously do the math in the closely divided B.C. legislature.
Leonard Krog, the long-serving New Democratic Party MLA, is considering a run for the mayor’s office in his hometown of Nanaimo this fall.
And Rich Coleman, the veteran Liberal MLA and former interim leader of his party, might run for mayor of Surrey.
The backroom wheeling and dealing has set Victoria’s political grapevine aflame — with most of the fire centred on Krog’s looming decision.
That’s because if Krog goes for it — and sources tell me he’s ready, willing and raring to go — it would set up a crucial byelection in which the governing NDP-Green alliance’s hold on power would be put on the line.
“If the NDP lost that byelection, it would be curtains for the government,” said Liberal strategist Mike McDonald.
It’s all about the numbers game in the minority parliament.
The B.C. Liberals hold 42 seats, the most of any party in the 87-seat legislature.
But the Liberals are outnumbered by the governing NDP-Green alliance. The New Democrats have 41 seats and the Greens have three, for a total of 44 and a two-seat edge over the opposition Liberals.
There is one independent MLA: Former Liberal Darryl Plecas, who was kicked out of the party after he defied his Liberal colleagues to take the neutral Speaker’s job.
Krog confirmed he’s considering a bid for the mayor’s office in Nanaimo.
“A great number of people have encouraged me,” Krog said. “I have nothing to announce now, but at some point I will have something to say.”
The New Democrats are already preparing for a possible byelection in which the stakes could not be higher.
“We know he’s getting a lot of pressure to run for mayor and that he’s thinking about it,” said NDP communications director Glen Sanford. “We’re very confident we would win that byelection.”
But if the Liberals stole the seat away from the NDP, the result would a political earthquake in British Columbia that would shake the government to its foundation.
That’s because a Liberal win would give them 43 seats, while reducing the NDPGreen alliance to an equal 43 seats.
A tie. Under the rules, the Speaker is allowed to vote to break a tie in the legislature. But who knows if Plecas — a former Liberal — would vote to keep the NDP in power?
“There’s no way they could continue to govern in a situation like that,” said McDonald, the Liberal strategist. “Andrew Wilkinson (the Liberal leader) would have an excellent case to make with the lieutenant-governor to call an immediate election.”
Why would Krog ditch his MLA job and run for mayor, especially when it threatens his party’s hold on power?
For one thing, Premier John Horgan passed him over for cabinet, despite the fact he’s a five-term MLA and a lawyer with deep experience.
“It’s a complete political mishandling of the situation by Horgan,” said McDonald. “How could they let this happen?”
But Sanford, the NDP spokesman, said Krog is happy with his role as government caucus chair, a job that pays an additional $21,000 a year on top of the regular MLA salary of $105,000.
“The fact is he is very popular and highly regarded in Nanaimo and a lot of people see him as a lifeline for city hall, where there have been a lot of problems.”
That’s putting it mildly. Nanaimo politicians and city staffers have been at each other’s throats. There have been threats, resignations and even police involvement.
“A lot of people want Leonard to come in and stabilize things,” said Sanford, who points out the Nanaimo seat is historically safe ground for the New Democrats.
Krog got more than 46 per cent of the vote in last year’s election and beat the Liberal candidate by more than 3,800 votes.
“Leonard would not be contemplating this decision if he had any doubt about our ability to retain the seat,” Sanford said.
But McDonald is not so sure the NDP are unbeatable on their own turf.
“Governing parties historically do very poorly in byelections,” he said. “Leonard Krog is personally very popular in the riding, but his name would not be on the ballot. The Liberals would definitely have a chance.”
Meanwhile, Liberal MLA Rich Coleman does not rule out running for the mayor of Surrey.
“There is a rumour a day about me!” Coleman joked. “I have not made any decision. If I do get close to a decision of any kind, I will let people know.”
The race for the top job in Surrey looks wide open after mayor Linda Hepner said she will not seek re-election, with several incumbent city councillors considering a bid.
If Coleman does run, he would have to explain why the previous Liberal government didn’t do more to help the city on issues such as transit, crime and bridge tolls.
Coleman is also an outsider. He’s the long-serving MLA for Fort Langley-Aldergrove and will face a challenge asking Surrey voters to elect an out-of-town mayor.
If Coleman ran, that would set up another byelection. But because the Liberals already hold the seat, it would not carry the same consequences as a Nanaimo byelection.
The bottom line: Keep a close eye on Leonard Krog. If he runs for mayor of Nanaimo — and I believe he will — it will set up a byelection battle with the reins of provincial power hanging in the balance.