GROUP F PREVIEW
Germany
QUALIFIED: First in UEFA Group C, ahead of Northern Ireland, Czech Rep., Norway. FIFA WORLD RANKING: No. 1 BEST FINISH: Champions (1954, 1974, 1990, 2014) MANAGER: Joachim Low – The German bench boss has guided Die Mannschaft to an astonishing five World Cup and European semifinals since taking over in 2006. BEST PLAYER: Thomas Muller – Perhaps the most dynamic striker in the competition, Muller’s versatility is underrated when he’s compared to top forwards in this competition. What I like about the 28-year-old Bayern Munich attacker is he’s essentially a utility man with a nose for goal – an extremely rare combination. Ask coach Low and he’d probably tell you he’s comfortable playing Muller just about anywhere. Simply put, good footballers are good footballers. Muller can play wide, centrally or with his back to goal. He’s unselfish but also ruthless when he’s inside the penalty area. While others point to Toni Kroos as being Germany’s top player, Muller is the guy I enjoy watching. OUTLOOK: The Germans didn’t just dominate UEFA World Cup qualifying. They did things that have never been done for. Die Mannschaft scored a record 43 goals on the way to a perfect 10-0-0 record in UEFA Group C, and conceded just four goals along the way. We expect the reigning World Cup holders to win. We didn’t necessarily expect them to make the rest of UEFA look third class. One of the best way of explaining Germany’s quality is to look at the players Low left off his squad. The Germans could bring three teams to Russia and all three would make the quarterfinals. Germany didn’t bring Manchester City attacker Leroy Sane or Mario Gotze, the man who scored the game-winning goal in the 2014 final. Germany enjoys the deepest roster the world has known. But will it once again with the best? BEST-CASE SCENARIO: Champions WORST-CASE SCENARIO: An opening match loss or draw with dark horse Mexico could see Germany meet Brazil in the second round. LARSON’S PREDICTION: Finalists
Mexico
QUALIFIED: Finished 1st in CONCACAF qualifying, ahead of Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras and the U.S.
FIFA WORLD RANKING: No. 15 BEST FINISH: Quarterfinal (1970, ’86) MANAGER: Juan Carlos Osorio – The Colombian has had three stints in Major League Soccer with the New York Metrostars, Chicago Fire and N.Y. Red Bulls. BEST PLAYER: Javier Hernandez – Beloved by Mexican fans, Chicharito enters what’s likely his last World Cup chasing a deep run with a Mexican side that could either make the semifinals or crash out of the tournament. The 30-year-old striker has made a living – at Manchester United, Real Madrid, Bayern Leverkusen and West Ham United – as a pure poacher, a player who could have little impact on the game for 89 minutes until he converts the only chance he needs. Hernandez has a remarkable strike rate for Mexico, scoring in roughly half of his appearances since 2009. While he’s gone quiet in recent years, Mexican supporters have belief in a player who always seems to score timely goals at the international level. OUTLOOK: It could go either way for Mexico. The Germans, of course, will run away with the Group F, but anything can happen after that. While I think Mexico is one of the top 15 sides in the tournament, Sweden could be an awkward matchup. The Mexicans always struggle against big, organized sides intent on sitting back and either counter-attacking or stealing a goal on a set place. That’s Sweden. Still, the Mexicans are more the capable of breaking down any opponent. Providing Hernandez service are the likes of Raul Jimenez (Benfica), Carlos Vela (Los Angeles FC), Hirving Lozano (PSV) and Oribe Peralta (America) — a foursome of big game and international experience. This is likely it for several long time Mexican players, a golden generation, who enter this tournament at the peak of their careers. Andres Guardado (Betis), Giovani dos Santos (L.A. Galaxy), Marco Fabian (Frankfurt) and Hector Herrera (Porto) will be on the other side of 30 come Qatar 2022. This is their last attempt at a deep run. BEST-CASE SCENARIO: Semifinals WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Mexico can’t afford to enter the final day of group play needing a win vs. Sweden. LARSON’S PREDICTION: Round of 16 loss to Brazil.
Sweden
QUALIFIED: Defeated Italy 1-0 on aggregate in a UEFA playoff series. FIFA WORLD RANKING: No. 24 BEST FINISH: Third place (1950, ’94) MANAGER: Janne Andersson has spent his entire 30-year coaching career managing in Sweden.
BEST PLAYER: Emil Forsberg – The 26-year-old RB Leipzig attacker takes charge of a team without Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who this week slammed Swedish media for suggesting the blue and yellow are better without him. So, attention turns to Forsberg, who has more than held his own in the Bundesliga since moving to Germany from Malmo in 2015. On a side historically bereft of attacking options, Forsberg is the kind of player who can make something happen in the final third. His ability to play on the half-turn makes him a threat to run at defenders and create scoring opportunities. Forsberg is the kind of player who can make the difference for Sweden in a tight affair — something Ibrahimovic provided before his departure.
OUTLOOK: Bet against Sweden at your own peril. The blue and yellow finished second in a difficult UEFA qualifying group containing France, the Netherlands and Bulgaria, conceding less than a goal-pergame in the process. After that, Sweden held Italy goalless in a playoff series that denied the Azzurri a place at the finals for the first time in a half-century. The Swedes aren’t necessarily master tacticians, but they typically play within themselves and stick to what they’re good at: Organized defending. The fact Sweden defeated France and outlasted the Dutch in qualifying tells me they can snag a result on any given day. The fight for second place in Group F very well could come down to a Matchday 3 meeting with Mexico. Don’t bet against the stubborn Swedes if that happens. BEST-CASE SCENARIO: Round of 16 loss to Brazil. WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Third-place finish in Group F. LARSON’S PREDICTION: I want to pick them to advance at Mexico’s expense, but I’m not going to.
South Korea
QUALIFIED: Finished 2nd in AFC Group A qualifying, behind Iran.
FIFA WORLD RANKING: No. 57 BEST FINISH: Fourth place (2002) MANAGER– Shin Tae-yong, the exKorean midfielder played a dozen years with Seongnam FC of the K League. BEST PLAYER: Son Heung-min — The 25-year-old Tottenham attacker is the brightest light on weak South Korean side that struggled in what should have been a fairly straightforward qualifying cycle. Son is one of just two South Korean players currently competing in any of Europe’s big leagues. In Son, the Koreans have at least one player capable of making something happen in the final third, where they struggled during the final round of AFC qualifying. Son finds the most joy when he’s able to find possession in wide area before isolating opposing defenders and producing an attempt at goal or a cross. If Portugal has Cristiano Ronaldo. South Korea has the man they call “Sonaldo.”
OUTLOOK: Not good. This is the weakest South Korean side we’ve seen at a World Cup in quite some time. And they’ve landed in a group with three superior teams with more talent all over the park. South Korea enters this tournament following a loss to Bosnia and Herzegovina and a draw against Bolivia. The Taegeuk Warriors finished well off the pace in AFC qualifying and almost failed to achieve automatic qualification. What’s more, South Korea finished with a lacklustre plus-1 goal differential in qualifying group that contained Qatar, a side they fell to 3-2 in qualifying – something that never would have happened in previous World Cup cycles. BEST-CASE SCENARIO: Round of 16. WORST-CASE SCENARIO: South Korea could lose all three games during the group stage. LARSON’S PREDICTION: Last in Group F.