How the NDP could lose a byelection in Nanaimo
very popular on the street.
The NDP would win.”
Unless they don’t, of course. And as the New Democrats ponder what could go wrong, just consider a few of the possibilities:
DIVERSITY MANDATE
Under the NDP’s diversity policy, the party’s byelection candidate must be a member of an “equity-seeking group.”
Equity-seeking groups are defined as: “Women, persons of colour, Aboriginal people, persons with disabilities, lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgendered, transsexual or intersex persons and young people between 18 and 25 years of age.”
In other words able-bodied, heterosexual, white men age 26 and older — like Leonard Krog, for example — will be banned from running.
Krog personally disagrees with the equity mandate.
“I have questioned the value of this party policy for a number of years,” he said.
“It has been the source of great consternation in several constituencies and led to some fights.”
His complaint about the policy? It unfairly disqualifies people who might be great NDP candidates.
“No question about that,” he said. “If you’re not allowing people to run based on their gender or other criteria, it rules out a significant number of people.”
Does he worry the policy might result in the party passing over the best possible candidate in a make-or-break byelection?
“No, I’m not worried,” he said. “In a city of 90,000, there will be a pool of qualified people. We will have an excellent candidate, no doubt.”
But I’m already hearing grumbling from some NDP quarters over the policy.
TAXES, TAXES, TAXES
Nanaimo is one of the cities where the NDP is imposing its controversial “speculation tax” on people who own multiple properties. The tax increases next year.
The NDP’s new “payroll tax” on businesses, municipalities, school districts, health authorities and nonprofit community organizations also kicks in on Jan. 1.
If Horgan delays calling the byelection until next spring, voters could be going to the polls as an anti-tax backlash is peaking.
That could prompt Horgan to call the byelection early.
Krog has said he’ll remain an MLA until the municipal election in October, meaning Horgan could send Nanaimo voters to the polls in a pre-Christmas byelection — before his grinch-style taxes kick in.
THE LIBERALS
With the NDP’s hold on power hanging in the balance, the B.C. Liberals will search high and low for the best possible byelection candidate. And the Liberals won’t have a restrictive “equity mandate” that disqualifies anyone.
What if the Liberals unveil a star candidate? And what if the B.C. Green party splits the vote and helps the Liberals pull off a government-toppling upset?
I hear some in the NDP ranks hope the Greens sit the byelection out, endorsing the NDP candidate instead, to ensure a power-preserving victory.
But Green party Leader Andrew Weaver quickly ruled that out.
“We believe in giving British Columbians something to vote for, not against,” Weaver said. “The B.C. Greens look forward to building on our growing momentum in any and all byelections.”
But if the Greens split the vote, and the Liberals sneak up the middle, it will only create momentum to a snap election that Weaver doesn’t want.
With so many risks and variables in play, you probably won’t be surprised to hear Premier John Horgan wasn’t thrilled with Krog’s decision to run for mayor.
“He was surprised,” Krog said. “He asked that I reconsider. But my mind was made up.”
The likeliest outcome: Krog wins the mayor’s job. The NDP wins the byelection. The NDP-Green alliance stays in power.
Simple. And after all: What could possibly go wrong?