Victoria’s secrets

What could possibly go wrong?

That’s the question New Democrats and Green party members around B.C. are asking themselves after NDP MLA Leonard Krog confirmed the news revealed in this space last Sunday: He’s running to be mayor of Nanaimo.

Why is this such a big deal? Because Krog’s move sets up a crucial byelection in which the governing NDP-Green alliance’s hold on power will be put to the test.

If the NDP loses Krog’s Nanaimo seat to the Liberals, it will deadlock the B.C. legislature at 43-43, likely triggering a general election.

Talk about rolling the political dice. But Krog doesn’t think it’s a gamble at all.

“This is a solid NDP seat,” Krog told me. “I wouldn’t be doing this if I wasn’t confident in our party’s ability to retain it.”

Local history backs him up. Nanaimo is a working class city that has elected an NDP MLA in 13 of the last 15 elections. Krog easily won the seat last year, taking 46 per cent of the vote and beating his Liberal opponent by more than 3,800 votes.

But provincial history? That’s something else.

Over the last 37 years, the governing party’s record in provincial byelections is an ugly one: Just two wins (both by then-premier Christy Clark) versus 22 losses.

Even “safe” government seats are vulnerable in byelections, as Clark’s Liberals discovered back in 2012.

That was the year the NDP won a byelection in the riding of Chilliwack-Hope, an otherwise unassailable Liberal fortress. In 2009, former Liberal cabinet minister Barry Penner won the seat by 3,347 votes. In the byelection just three years later, the NDP candidate won by 1,429 votes.

None of which bothers

Krog.

“This would not be a normal byelection,” he said. “This is not a tired, old government. Premier John Horgan is still