In biggest byelection ever, Horgan charges out

Premiers are notorious for dragging their feet on byelections, especially since the governing party has a historically lousy record of winning them.

Not this time. On Wednesday, Premier John Horgan introduced the NDP’s presumptive candidate for the crucial and looming byelection in Nanaimo.

I say “presumptive” because Sheila Malcolmson still has to win the party’s nomination to become the candidate. But with the endorsement of Horgan and outgoing MLA Leonard Krog, that will not be a problem.

Malcolmson is an excellent candidate in a byelection where the stakes couldn’t be higher. She is the current NDP MP for Nanaimo-Ladysmith, a riding she won handily in 2016. She has the local name recognition, winning record and political machine to win a provincial byelection.

Losing isn’t an option for the NDP here. The byelection, expected in January, was forced after Krog won last Sat- urday’s municipal election to become the next mayor of Nanaimo.

If the New Democrats were to lose this seat to the Liberals, it would produce a tie in the legislature between the Libs and the governing NDPGreen alliance. That would be curtains for the government and force an early election that Horgan and Green party Leader Andrew Weaver both want to avoid.

So the New Democrats will go all out to win in what is supposed to be a “safe” NDP seat, comfortably won by Krog last year.

But governing parties have a terrible track record in pro- vincial byelections. Since 1981, the governing party’s won-lost record in byelections is a woeful 2-and-22, respectively.

Those two government victories were both won by Christy Clark. So if Malcolmson is to pull this off, she must become the first candidate from a governing party, who is NOT the premier, to win a provincial byelection in 37 years.

The Liberals will try to turn the byelection into a referendum on the Horgan government. They will take aim at the NDP’s speculation tax on real estate — opposed by the City of Nanaimo — and the unpopular health-care payroll tax.

But it will be an uphill fight in a traditional NDP stronghold.

And Horgan has governed effectively enough to keep the NDP buoyant in the opinion polls.

One bit of good news for the Liberals came from Weaver, who insisted the Green party will field a candidate in the riding, potentially splitting off some votes from Malcolmson.

But the biggest challenge for the Liberals will be finding a strong candidate in a riding that’s been a political wasteland for them in the past.

Is it impossible for the Liberals to pull off the stunning upset and plunge B.C. into even more political drama? No, but it’s a long shot.

“I estimate that the B.C. Liberals have a 20-per-cent chance of victory,” Liberal strategist Mike McDonald wrote on his blog. “That’s worth fighting for, given the stakes.”

Those stakes are high indeed.

And in this wild-and-wacky province, you just never know.