Time for NFL teams to go all-in on offence ... Top defences not enough in current era ... Bills quarterback situation about as bad as it gets
It’s not that defence doesn’t matter in the NFL anymore. It’s just that offence matters so much more.
Want to build a winning NFL franchise in the late 2010s, and in the years to come? Then you’d better go about building a great offence, not a great defence.
Things have been trending in this direction throughout the decade, to the point that in 2018 you cannot have a great team without being great on offence. Period. You can’t even be competitive without being above-average on offence.
That means you must (a) have a good-to-great quarterback, (b) surround him with good playmakers at receiver and running back, behind an able offensive line, and (c) employ clever schemes in both the pass and run, custom-built around your good-to-great quarterback’s talents.
That’s how Kansas City, New Orleans, New England, the Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers are doing it now.
All six of those teams rank at, or near, the top in most pertinent offensive categories, including top 10 in total offence. But you know what? Not one of them ranks in the top 10 in total defence. Of course, it all starts with the quarterback.
You can max out in (b) and (c) above — as was the case last year in Kansas City — but your QB cannot be an anchor. He cannot hold you back. Otherwise you, at best, can only flicker greatness on offence, not shine it brightly most the time.
Every NFL franchise that refuses to embrace this topdown philosophy — of prioritizing the scoring of as many points as possible — is living in the past and doomed to failure.
Now, you can’t field a defence that’s completely horrible, one so porous it can’t even stop an ant. For proof, see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who offensively rank No. 2 in total yards per game (447), but turn the ball over way too much and, just as ruinously, rank last defensively in scoring, allowing 34 points allowed per game.
Such exceptions aside, the top four NFL teams in scoring offence so far in 2018 are Kansas City (36 points scored per game), New Orleans (35), L.A. Rams (33) and New England (30). Their combined record through Sunday: 30-5.
In contrast, the top four teams in total defence so far in 2018 are Baltimore (305 total yards allowed per game), Jacksonville (313), Buffalo (314) and Dallas (314). Their combined record through Sunday: 12-21. All four had a losing record before Dallas played on Monday night.
Maybe not the Cowboys, but the Ravens, Jaguars and Bills all have been constructed to win with defence first. Where is it getting them? Nowhere. Those days are gone.
They need to join the new club. Fast. Or they’ll be further left behind in what clearly has become the dawning in 2018 of the golden age of NFL offence.
That old football saying that you win games with offence, but championships with defence? Yeah, it’s gone with the wins.
FIVE FAST FACTS
Todd Gurley has scored a TD in a Rams-record 12 straight games ... Bill
O’Brien’s Texans are 27-1 when leading at halftime, the NFL’s best record in that category since 2014 ... WR
Michael Thomas set a Saints record with 211 receiving yards vs. the Rams ... The Vikings sacked Matthew Stafford 10 times, a Minnesota record ... Patrick Mahomes has passed for 300-plus yards in his past eight games of a two-year, 10-game career. The QB he replaced in Kansas City, Alex Smith, on Sunday passed for 300-plus yards for the 12th time in his 14-year, 164-game career.
TAKING A KNEE
Further to the column-topping item, above, it’s not that defensive-minded head coaches all should suddenly be out of a job.
But the people who hire them — owners, club presidents or GMs — must understand that they might need to help those guys out ASAP to figure out how best to win the newway.
For example, the Jaguars currently are stuck with conservative-minded football czar Tom Coughlin and head coach Doug Marrone. In classic rock terms, they’re still writing Merseybeat songs and it’s 1968.
Similarly, the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals are trying to rebuild with defensive head coaches Todd Bowles and Steve Wilks, respectively. And Cincinnati still has relic defensive-minded head coach Marvin Lewis, doing the same thing.
The prime example,
If Nathan Peterman was worth still carrying on the roster, shouldn’t he have started at Indy over the barely prepared Derek Anderson? Of course. But he wasn’t. We all know why.
though, may be the Buffalo Bills.
First-time, second-year GM Brandon Beane and first-time, second-year head coach Sean McDermott deserve credit for a fabulous job in delivering a sharp upgrade on defence via the draft and free agency, and coaching up that defence on the field.
Too bad it has come at the expense of the offence, at the worst possible time maybe in NFL history.
For instance, last year McDermott (before Beane arrived as GM) passed on drafting either Mahomes or
Deshaun Watson with the No. 10 overall pick. Instead McDermott traded down with Kansas City, to No. 27, thereby enabling the Chiefs to gladly snare Mahomes at 10th overall, beating out Houston and Arizona (then coached by Mahomes-loving
Bruce Arians) for that right. Of all Bills blunders this young century, that might go down as the worst.
McDermott and Beane have only compounded the mistake with a series of further QB misjudgements.
Trading Tyrod Taylor to Cleveland in March wasn’t one of them. In three years of starting in Buffalo, we all saw Taylor’s ceiling, and it was unsatisfactorily low: Barely getting the Bills into the playoffs, then failing to do anything to beat a team (Jacksonville) the Buffalo defence held to 10 points.
Since shipping away Taylor, the ‘Mc/Beane’ duo hasn’t acquired a veteran QB anywhere near as serviceable.
The Bills burned a fifthround draft pick last year on QB Nathan Peterman, who in nine appearances including playoffs has proven to be, statistically, one of the worst passers in league history, with 13 interceptions in 133 throws. The Bills continue to stick by Peterman, refusing to move on from the mistake, and enlarging it with each embarrassing time they play him. Buffalo signed A.J. McCarron this past spring as the presumptive ‘bridge’ veteran QB, who’d play until this year’s No. 7 overall draft pick Josh Allen — a young man of considerable physical talents who might or might not pan
out — was ready. But McCarron flopped in training camp, started only one pre-season game (at Cleveland, in which he was dreadful) and finally was dealt to Oakland come September, for a fifth-round pick.
That left Peterman as the only veteran QB after cutdowns weekend. The Bills not only seemed fine with that, McDermott named him starter six days before the opener at Baltimore, over the rookie Allen. Disaster.
Even though Peterman crumbled against the Ravens and was yanked in the third quarter of a 47-3 loss, Mc/ Beane kept him as the No. 2 QB, behind the quickly promoted Allen.
It wasn’t until Week 6 that Mc/Beane signed another veteran passer, someone they’d worked with for years on the Carolina Panthers: Long-time Cam Newton backup Derek Anderson.
When Allen hurt his throwing elbow that week in a loss at Houston, McDermott’s offensive coaches had to scramble to prepare Anderson to play in Week 7 at Indianapolis, over Peterman.
If Peterman was worth still
carrying on the roster, shouldn’t he have started at Indy over the barely prepared Anderson? Of course. But he wasn’t. We all know why.
Poor Anderson threw three interceptions in a blowout loss to the Colts.
Anderson started again a week ago Monday in a 25-6 loss to New England, but got concussed. That’s why Peterman had to be elevated this past Sunday against Chicago, ahead of newly signed emergency backup Matt Barkley, and threw three picks in a 41-9 defeat.
McDermott was asked afterward if he believes Peterman is an NFL quarterback.
“I believe he is,” he said. Going so far down these awful Buffalo QB roads proves the point I’m about to make.
In today’s and tomorrow’s NFL, a franchise has little chance to compete, especially with the best, unless it can properly assess quarterbacks at both the college and pro levels, then develop the ones they choose to bring in, then implement cutting-edge, tailor-made schemes that best accentuate their talents.
Teams without such proven talent evaluators/ developers must go get them. Now. Win the off-season bidding wars to come.
Then wholly empower the man or men you get.
Better yet, anoint one singular czar of quarterbacks, and give him power over even the GM and head coach if necessary to select which draft QB to select, which freeagent QB to sign, what kind of offensive system would best maximize the No. 1’s talents, and which QB coach (if not himself ) to hire to wring the most out of those talents. Someone such as a Bruce
Arians, a long-time NFL coach (now retired) with a long track record of making good QB roster decisions, who knows how to coach up a QB — as he did with Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck and, at his last stop in Arizona, even a QB we’d all thought was long washed up, Carson Palmer.
Any NFL team henceforth that goes into even one more off-season without having such a proven, empowered QB talent evaluator and developer on staff is derelict, and asking to lose.