THE HITCH WITH MITCH
Marner’s next deal could threaten Maple Leafs’ financial structure
Ask Kyle Dubas whether the production of Mitch Marner this season has exceeded expectations and the Toronto Maple Leafs general manager side-steps the question and starts talking about how the 21-year-old forward is a breath of fresh air in a dressing room that has recently gone stale after losing seven of the past 10 games.
It sure beats talking about the elephant in the room.
Marner, who has become a top-10 scorer this season with a team-leading 61 points in 43 games, has complicated things for the Maple Leafs in a way that even Dubas probably didn’t quite expect. Whatever Marner might have been worth at the end of last year is not what he’s worth now. His next contract, which now may be the same or more as what Auston Matthews is asking for, could threaten the financial structure of a hockey team that still hasn’t won a playoff round — much less a Stanley Cup.
In other words, just as signing John Tavares opened up the window on winning a championship, having to re-sign Marner and Matthews is now causing it to close.
That means there is a heightened sense of urgency as Dubas approaches his first trade deadline in Toronto.
The Leafs, who have two of their top three forwards earning less than $2-million combined on entry-level contracts, may never have as deep a roster or as much available cap space as they have this season. And Dubas knows it. Even with Tavares being paid $11 million and Nylander at a cap hit of $10.277 million, the team is ranked 17th in the league in terms of total salary on the books. That leaves nearly $14 million in available cap space to plug holes in a roster that in the last few weeks has looked like the Titanic moments after brushing up against an iceberg.
If they want, the Leafs can acquire a top-pairing defenceman. Heck, they can afford two of them, plus a fourth-line centre and a back-up goalie.
They can try to outbid the Bruins for Wayne Simmonds or Micheal Ferland. As long as they’re acquiring a rental, they don’t have to worry about sending the salary the other way. It’s a luxury that few other contending teams have.
And it’s one that the Leafs, who Dubas said “won’t necessarily shy away” from acquiring rental players, have to take advantage of. Because after this year, life in the salary cap world gets very real.
Marner and Matthews, who are in the final year of their entry-level contracts, could end up earning a combined $24 million next season. Kasperi Kapanen, who has 15 goals already, is also in the last year of his rookie deal. As is winger Andreas Johnsson, defenceman Igor Ozhiganov and backup goalie Garret Sparks.
All of them are due for raises, some obviously more substantial than others.
The Leafs might not be headed down the same road as the Edmonton Oilers or the Chicago Blackhawks just yet. But if you think the team has depth problems on defence, just wait until Toronto loses Jake Gardiner and Ron
Hainsey to free agency and has to replace them with the nextbest prospects in the minors.
“Our hope is that our window where we’re in contention and continue to get better expands for many years — as many as humanly possible — but I think we do have some space now and we can improve the team,” Dubas said in a mid-season state of the union address at the team’s practice facility on Tuesday. “Like I said, we will continue to look to explore all those avenues to do that.
“You’re right, we might not have the same cap space at the deadline in the future, but I think that’s where we’ll be expecting our development model and our program here of the internal development of our guys.”
That’s Dubas hinting that next year’s team could have more youth and more unproven commodities. Maybe the core, which includes some of the top players in the league, will be able to make up for the lack of depth.
Which brings us back to Marner, who is scoring at a 104-point pace in just his third NHL season. Some of that is due to the fact that he’s playing on a wing with Tavares, who has 30 goals and 53 points. But it’s worth noting that with Matthews struggling to find the back of the net, the plan is for Marner to line up next to Matthews on Wednesday night in a sort of “fixer” role.
In hindsight, Marner probably should have been signed to a long-term deal at the end of last season, when his value was closer to $8 million. Dubas knows it. And so does Marner’s agent, who unlike Matthews’ camp, has since refused to negotiate until the end of what promises to be a lucrative season.
Then again, rival GMs across the league are probably saying the same about Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen, Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point and Carolina’s Sebastian Aho, who have all become top-20 scorers during the final season of their entry-level contracts.
“I think lots of teams are dealing with that now,” said Dubas.
All of that, however, is a problem for next season. For now, it’s about capitalizing on an opportunity that may never come again. With the trade deadline about a month away, the window is wide open.
And, unlike last year, simply adding a Tomas Plekanec won’t be enough.