Modelling suggests safe path to increase social interaction
Returning to 40 per cent of normal could flatten curve, halt new cases
British Columbians may soon be able to increase their safe interactions with people and still help keep COVID-19 under control, according to information released by the province on Monday.
B.C.’s provincial health officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, said more details on how that might happen will be released on Wednesday. Premier John Horgan is scheduled to roll out a plan that day for slowly easing restrictions in the next few weeks.
On Monday, computer modelling released by the province estimated that restrictions in place now have reduced interactions between people to 30 per cent of normal. People were called on to keep two metres away from those not in their household.
The restrictions — which closed schools, colleges, universities, bars while banning eat-in dining at restaurants — have significantly reduced the rate of spread of the virus and hospitalizations.
Increasing interactions to 40 per cent of normal is estimated to allow the curve to continue to be flattened and drive new cases to zero.
The modelling estimated that interactions could be increased to 60 per cent of normal and still keep the virus spread and hospitalizations under control, but not drive new cases to zero.
Physical-distancing restrictions, which have been implemented around the world, are meant to ensure that hospital critical-care capacity is not overwhelmed and to reduce deaths.
“Our challenge and our work together is to find that sweet spot, somewhere around increasing our contacts by at least half, or twice as many as we have now, but without allowing those opportunities for rapid exponential growth of the virus in our communities,” said Henry.
“We must find that right balance.”
B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix said those decisions, and what will be allowed to reopen and under what rules, will be based on science.
The virus continues to spread around the world, including in the U.S. where deaths now top more than 68,000, according to information compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Canada has had more than 4,000 deaths. In British Columbia, the death total is 117.
In the past 48 hours, there were 53 new cases of COVID19 recorded in B.C., for a total of 2,224 in B.C., Henry announced. There are 77 hospitalizations with 20 people in intensive care. Henry said if businesses were allowed to re-open, they would likely be required to follow measures already in place for grocery stores including barriers between clerks and shoppers and limiting to the number of people allowed on the premises.
She said she saw nothing in the immediate future that would end the ban on gatherings of over 50 people.
She said, for example, that if someone were to have a wedding in the summer as restrictions are eased, smaller would be better, outside would better than inside and there should be no buffets.
Asked about Vancouver being a location for the National Hockey League games, Henry said that would be a possibility but it would need to happen without an in-arena audience, only through broadcast.
She said that as restrictions are eased, it’s important to remember that anyone living with the most vulnerable — people with existing health conditions or the aged —would need to continue to restrict their contacts.
Information released Monday showed there has been 170 more deaths than would normally be expected in B.C. in March and April, a 2.7 per cent increase over a normal year. Of the about 60 deaths not caused by COVID-19 in those two months, some could be because people avoided hospital care.
Rob Gillezeau, a University of Victoria economist who watched the computer modelling presentation on Monday, said the information provides British Columbia with choices.
It can re-open its economy more aggressively in a scenario where people’s interactions rebound to 60 per cent of normal or a more cautious approach at 40 per cent of normal. He said that only under the more cautious approach is it estimated that new virus cases could be brought down to zero.