The quickest way to save the planet
Toyota gives new life to hybrids at the expense of much-hyped pure electric vehicles
You have to admit, it was a pretty bold move. If you missed the week’s news, Toyota announced a refreshed Sienna and the return of the once-discontinued Venza.
That’s not the big news; the Sienna revamp was expected and the Venza is a mid-sized crossover with pseudo all-wheel drive. The move that is sure to send ripples through the auto industry is Toyota announcing both new models will be available only as hybrids.
There will be no purely internal-combustion engines available in either the remade Sienna, or the reimagined Venza.
That news is noteworthy on two fronts. For one, it’s a doubling down on Toyota’s hybrid strategy. Assuming a return to some semblance of normalcy next year, this is a sizable commitment with the distinct possibility that the concept — or, more likely, the cost — of electrification might be off-putting to some buyers in what is a sizable portion of its fleet.
What’s even more notable is that said doubling-down comes even as pure battery-powered EVs garner all the attention and promise lavish subsidies. Indeed, governments, activists and, to a large extent, other manufacturers have seemingly given up on hybrids, the immediacy of rebates and the headline-generating allure of zero emissions is simply too enticing.
Truth be told, were it not for Toyota, hybrids would definitely be yesterday’s news.
And yet, the reason for their persistence is that simple hybrids — not even the plug-in kind — might actually be the quickest and most cost effective route to our collective goal of reducing greenhouse gases. Toyota’s argument is simply that battery-powered EVs are not an effective use of precious lithium-ions. Which is more effective at reducing CO2, 42 Priuses using 1.4 kWh of battery capable of reducing emissions by 30 per cent, or one 60 kWh EV that completely eliminates carbon dioxide?
I trust we don’t need a calculator for that one. Nor is Toyota the only one to make this argument. A report last year by Emissions Analytics determined that BEVs were actually the least efficient — measured by the amount of CO2 reduced per kilometre, per kilowatt hour of battery — and “mild” and regular hybrids the most effective.
But let’s not take either company’s word for it. Let’s do some math ourselves, shall we? Of the 237,091 vehicles Toyota sold last year, 14.6 per cent were hybrids. That’s 34,615 hybrids sold in 2019. Using that 30 per cent reduction factor, that’s equivalent to 10,384 BEVs, a significant number to be sure (about four times the number of Leafs Nissan Canada sold last year, according to GoodCarBadCar.
But wait, let’s do some more math. Assuming that Sienna sales stay the same and the Venza’s would be additional to 2019’s numbers, the total numbers of hybrids Toyota might sell in 2021 would be around 60,540 (or about 24 per cent of its sales). Factoring in the same 30 per cent reduction — though Toyota has not released official figures, the Venza might actually do better — that’s some 18,135 BEV equivalents, roughly the same number as Tesla sold Model S, 3, and Xs in Canada last year. Allow me to mention said reduction in emissions would require no new infrastructure and no subsidization by taxpayers (as in, no ZEV incentives).
Expect this inexorable march to hybridization to continue. That the company’s Tundra pickup — the segment most direly in need of electrification — will be hybridized soon(ish) is perhaps the worst-kept secret in the industry. The new PHEV version of the RAV4, meanwhile, is probably the most anticipated vehicle in what remains of the industry’s lost year. More importantly, if the Sienna formula is a guide, one has to wonder whether Camry might be the next significant model to go all-hybrid.
If the goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as quickly and efficiently as possible, hybrids can play a huge part in that reduction.