Threat from COVID-19 ‘still right here with us’

With new confirmed COVID-19 infections surging across the U.S. South, Dr. David Fisman says a reasonable expectation would be that America “is in for a hellacious couple of weeks" in terms of deaths.

“This has been so badly mishandled from the get-go in the United States. It’s horrible to watch,” said Fisman, head of the division of epidemiology at the University of Toronto’s school of public health.

But neither should Canadians imagine we are so “epidemiologically different,” said Simon Fraser University disease modelling expert Caroline Colijn.

“If we reopen too much we will see rises in cases, too.”

While Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Monday a review of the federal response to COVID-19 will help prepare for a potential second wave, the first wave hasn’t passed.

In Canada, daily new cases and deaths are falling, hospital admission rates are down and recoveries are increasing, according to a new federal modelling update released Monday. And while there’s been a steep decrease in transmission among the elderly, there’s been a relative increase among 20- to 39-year-olds.

“It’s still right here with us, like embers in a dry forest,” said Colijn, whose modelling has helped inform B.C.’s response to the pandemic.

We’ve slowed the curve with severe actions, not with immunity, she said. “When we stop the water by stopping our distancing measures and other public health control, those sparks can light up,” igniting large new outbreaks.