Census stats reveal local winners and losers

It’s municipal testosterone time in Niagara.

That’s right, the 2016 census results have been released and local municipalities are checking their figures to see who can flex muscles over population growth.

Show those biceps, Niagara-on-the Lake, Grimsby and Niagara Falls.

Start eating your Wheaties, St. Catharines, Port Colborne and Wainfleet.

As for the whole of Niagara region, well, it’s a so-so result.

Its population grew 3.8 per cent since the 2011 census to 447,888, a rate that is sort of close to the provincial hike of 4.6 per cent.

Niagara outpaced Hamilton’s growth of 3.3 per cent, but lagged behind other regional municipalities in the Toronto orbit like Halton (9.3 per cent), Peel (6.5 per cent), York (7.5 per cent), Durham (6.2 per cent) and Waterloo (5.5 per cent).

As far as the unofficial intra-Niagara competition is concerned, let’s just say it pays to be close to Hamilton Toronto and it’s nice to have plenty of greenfield space for development.

Unfortunately for St. Catharines, it doesn’t have either of those advantages.

Grimsby, the closest neighbour to the GTA, only had the second highest rate of growth (7.9 per cent) among Niagara municipalities the past five years, but its population has risen 40 per cent since 1996, substantially higher than its nearest peninsula rival.

By contrast, St. Catharines only grew 1.7 per cent over that same 20-year period. The shame! The Niagara growth winner in the 2016 census is Niagara-on-the-Lake. Its population rose 13.7 per cent to 17,511.

In light of this, I owe the good people of NOTL a half-hearted apology.

You see, back in 2008 the town was fighting to keep its only high school open. To help make its case, then-Lord Mayor Gary Burroughs asserted Niagara-on-the-Lake was expected to grow from 15,000 to 25,000 by 2025.

Upon reading his comment, I laughed and laughed and laughed.

I mean, c’mon. It had only grown 14 per cent in the previous 30 years, yet it was projected to grow by 60 per cent in the next 20 years??? What were those old cats in NOTL smoking, I wondered.

Turned out they were getting their information from Niagara Region.

Extrapolating from census data and taking into account the amount of land zoned for housing, deep thinkers in the Region’s planning department projected the town’s population would be 21,208 in 2016 and 24,698 in 2025.

True, they were off by a few thousand this past census, but my guffawing over their forecast has changed to a slight smirk.

Speaking of which, you may recall I lampooned past puffy population projections for St. Catharines a few weeks ago.

Various provincial, regional and city studies have suggested the city’s population would be 143,800 in 2031 and 168,000 in 2041.

Given St. Catharines’ snail-like growth the past couple of decades, I regarded the above forecasts as real knee-slappers.

Should the 2016 census results give me cause for pause?

Could St. Catharines really be in for a Niagara-on-the-Lake growth burst? In 2041, will I feel compelled to rise from my slumber at the Rest Home for Bewildered Journalists and issue another quasi-apology? Nah. Here’s why. Puzzled over the Region’s healthy growth projections for NOTL nine years ago, I sought enlightenment from regional planner Rich Miller.

He attributed the rosy forecast, in part, to the belief the town would be a beneficiary of St. Catharines’ lack of urban land. Specifically, we’re talking about land that could accommodate low-density residential development, the type of housing desired by Niagarans for decades.

Niagara-on-the-Lake has plenty of that land. So do the nearby municipalities of Niagara Falls, Thorold, Lincoln, Pelham and Welland. And they had the growth rates in the 2016 census to prove it.

To achieve substantial growth, St. Catharines needs to develop a strong market for high-rise living and go on an in-filling splurge.

Hmm, sounds tougher than eating a lot of Wheaties.