Canadians rally around NAFTA
Trump’s disdain for trade pact not felt on our side of border
U.S. President Donald Trump’s disdain for the North American Free Trade Agreement seems to be shoring up Canadians’ support for the deal, according to the results of a new poll.
More than 44 per cent of Canadians who responded to the Angus Reid Institute poll conducted this month and released Monday said they believe NAFTA has benefitted the country, nearly double the 25 per cent who responded to a similar survey in June.
“What a difference eight months and a new U.S. president make,” the Angus Reid Institute said in a statement.
Just 24 per cent of Canadians surveyed said they’d like to see the deal renegotiated, down 10 points from the 34 per cent who said so eight months prior.
The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner, with some 80 per cent of cross-border commerce occurring with our neighbours to the south.
“This sudden surge in affection for the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade pact first implemented in 1994 doesn’t necessarily equate to a belief that it will remain intact, however,” the Angus Reid Institute said. “Most Canadians think renegotiation will happen, and they’re three times more likely to expect Canada to be worse off than better off as a result.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in Washington on Monday for his first face-to-face meeting with Trump with one overarching goal: Keep Canada out of the U.S president’s protectionist trade crosshairs. The president has repeatedly said he’ll rip up NAFTA, signed in 1994 between Canada, Mexico and the U.S.
Canadians’ recent wave of support for NAFTA is a stark contrast to the 58 per cent who opposed the deal in a survey conducted as it was being negotiated in 1993.
Under his “America first” policy, Trump is seeking more favourable terms of trade that would keep more jobs in the U.S. and potentially get Canada and Mexico to pay for access to the market.
Under Article 2205 of NAFTA, the U.S. can withdraw from the agreement with six months notice, leaving Canada and Mexico party to it.
However, Canadians surveyed by Angus Reid were three times more likely to say the U.S. should continue to be Canada’s trading focus over Mexico.
If NAFTA were cancelled, it is likely the countries would revert back to the never-cancelled Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, under which most goods would still cross the border duty free.
Canadians appear favourable to looser trade policies overall, with more Canadians supporting the Trump-rejected Trans-Pacific-Partnership (TPP) and the soon-to-be-ratified Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with the European Union.