Shoo-ins and should wins
Predicting this year’s big Oscar winners
A year after the controversy of #OscarsSoWhite, there seems to be some positive reconstruction with seven visible minorities among the 20 acting nominees at the 89th Academy Awards.
Then again, the mainstream musical La La Land leads all entries with 14 nominations, tying the record set by Titanic and All About Eve.
In the Canadian corner, Quebec’s Denis Villeneuve had his Arrival saluted with eight Oscar nods of approval. And Cornwall, Ont.raised Ryan Gosling picked up another nomination for his portrayal of a jazz pianist in La La Land. Nine other Canadians are also in the running.
A look at who should win — and who will win — the night’s biggest prizes:
BEST PICTURE
Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight
Should win: The sensitive scifi head trip Arrival is tied with the gritty crime yarn Hell or High Water. Will win: The light-as air La La Land is in stark contrast to the moody Manchester by the Sea and the moving Moonlight. But the musical will likely pick up a statue because Hollywood loves to watch itself.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Casey Affleck, (Manchester by the Sea), Andrew Garfield, (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling, (La La
Land), Viggo Mortensen, (Captain Fantastic), Denzel Washington, (Fences)
Should win: Nobody does intensity like Denzel Washington. His Fences portrayal of a bitter African-American former Negro league baseball player is engrossing for all the right reasons.
Will win: Casey Affleck’s sullen handyman in Manchester by the Sea is the favourite but Washington has late momentum, so it will be close.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Isabelle Huppert, (Elle), Ruth Negga, (Loving), Natalie Portman, (Jackie), Emma Stone, (La La Land), Meryl Streep, (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Should win: Ruth Negga’s sublte but strong-willed Loving champion of equality is memorable and vivid.
Will win: Emma Stone’s darling personality shows itself in interviews and on the La La Land big screen. It’s the perfect one-two punch.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali, (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges, (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges, (Manchester by the Sea), Dev Patel, (Lion), Michael Shannon, (Nocturnal Animals)
Should win: Mahershala Ali’s drug dealer in Moonlight exists only in this hyper-real world, but Ali’s dedication to the portrayal is mesmerizing. Will win: Mahershala Ali’s drug dealer in Moonlight.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Viola Davis, (Fences), Naomie Harris, (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman, (Lion), Octavia Spencer, (Hidden Figures), Michelle Williams, (Manchester by the Sea) Should win: Call it a tie between Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight) and Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures) Will win: In Fences, Viola Davis’s abused wife matches Washington’s domineering power, and she deserves a statue for the effort.
DIRECTING
Denis Villeneuve, (Arrival), Mel Gibson, (Hacksaw Ridge), Damien Chazelle, (La La Land), Kenneth Lonergan, (Manchester by the Sea), Barry Jenkins, (Moonlight) Should win: Academy voters underestimate the power and glory of Villeneuve’s Arrival, but they shouldn’t.
Will win: Damien Chazelle is rewarded for his what-you-seeis-all-you get straightforward approach in La La Land
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion, Moonlight Should win: It’s Arrival for Eric Heisserer’s astute reinvention of Ted Chiang ’s story. Will win: It’s Moonlight, the play Barry Jenkins adapted with playwright Tarell Alvin McCraney,
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Manchester by the Sea, 20th Century Women
Should win: Taylor Sheridan’s Hell or High Water enters the familiar crime genre zone but with inventive twists and turns, making this a compelling buddy movie times two. Will win: It’s anybody ’s guess between Damien Chazelle’s smoothas-silk La La Land and Kenneth Lonergan’s evocative dialogue in Manchester by the Sea. Let’s go with Manchester by the Sea.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, The Red Turtle, Zootopia Should win: It’s the stylish Hollywood anime translation Kubo and the Two Strings. Will win: Zootopia is acceptable and accessible.