Macron victory sends message to Trudeau
It’s always refreshing when voters actually kick deserving bums out of office. Make no mistake about it, that’s what happened in France over the weekend.
Sure, the Monday morning headlines screamed the same tune about the rejection of Marine Le Pen’s National Front as the big narrative. It wasn’t. The biggest change to French politics is something we learned last month during the first round vote for the presidency. That change is that in France, as is happening elsewhere, voters rejected the establishment. The two parties that made it to the run-off vote were the National Front and En Marche!, the party of eventual winner Emmanuel Macron. The traditional mainstream parties are the Republicans and Socialists, which finished third and fifth, respectively, in the first round.
The Socialists are the incumbent party, with the current president, Francois Hollande, serving since 2012. He was so unpopular he chose not to put his name forward as the candidate this year. That didn’t save his party’s fortunes. Under candidate Benoit Hamon their fifth place finish only garnered a dismal six per cent of the vote.
While incoming president Macron at first blush appears to have scored a massive victory against Le Pen, it depends on how you look at it.
The last time the National Front made it to the second round was when Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine’s father, faced off against Jacques Chirac in 2002. Le Pen won a poor 18 per cent of the vote against Chirac’s 82 per cent.
This past weekend Le Pen doubled her father’s efforts, winning a respectable 34 per cent. There is no writing off a voter base of this size. Clearly, Le Pen’s criticism of the EU, immigration policies and radical Islam resonated with many voters.
Based on the headlines around the world, this perspective will only grow in the years ahead. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau needs to understand this nuance.
“I look forward to working closely with president-elect Macron in the years ahead as we work together on a progressive agenda,” he said in a statement following the results.
Trudeau should certainly work closely with all of our Western allies. But the PM should not misread the mood in Canada and results in France as an excuse to double down on his already excessive “progressive agenda”.
The French kicked out the establishment elites. Canada could be next.